By Zach Miller
After A Strong Start To 2025 For West Coast Producers, Uncertainty Prevails
At the time of this writing, a 25 percent tariff was implemented and just as quickly rescinded on Canadian lumber, creating a level of ambiguity and worry. On top of that, producers are having a difficult time finding fiber, especially Cedar logs. Producers on both sides of the border do feel optimistic, however.
Dean Garofano of Delta Forestry Group located in Pitt Meadows, BC, said, “Delta Cedar Specialties is experiencing strong sales and shipments early in 2025. We had high demand in January and so far, February is shaping up to be another big shipping month. Currently, we have a full order file stretching out over the next few months. Tight knot Cedar products and long length Hemlock timbers have been the most sought-after items. Despite the promising start, there are concerns on the horizon. Log supply, particularly Cedar, is still very low and the current snow has halted any logging. With Fir log prices still very low, many permits are not economical to log, reducing the overall number of logs coming to the market.”
Garofano continued, “Additionally, constant tariff threats from the United States president on Canadian exports has had producers on edge- anxiously following this roller coaster ride. At this time, the tariffs are delayed until March and have not officially been enacted. The current countervailing and antidumping duties combined duty rate of over 14 percent is expected to increase to 30 percent or higher this August or September, adding another hurdle for our industry. Although these challenges are daunting, they are nothing new for the coastal forestry industry. We will continue to be resilient and take them on one at a time working with our United States partners. For Cedar, the supply and demand imbalance will likely lead to higher prices regardless of duties and tariffs so I expect the recent price gains to continue through the spring market.”
John McDowell of Oregon Industrial Lumber Products in Springfield, OR, said, “currently in Yellow Cedar, there is more supply available than demand in some products. We still see prices trying to move up caused by a combination of tightness in other species and the possibility of additional tariffs on the United States side. On the Doug Fir side, Clears remain tight overall. There has been some relief in the amount of narrows available but the prices have not come down yet, which does not only concern tariffs but order files that are still behind on the sawmill end. Most vertical grain (VG) items are multiple months out when ordering from sawmills.
“Pricing out of Canada is extremely high,” he continued, “with some prices at the same level or higher than the same sizing in Red Cedar (which is traditionally higher). Fine grain VG is even more elusive and can add as much as 10 to 20 percent to the price. Anything wider than 6-inches in Douglas Fir is extremely tight with prices that reflect this. My customers have told me that VG Hemlock is in a very similar position. I expect pricing to remain stable (unless tariffs do materialize) at least until summer, at which point mills will have caught up on their 6-inch and narrower order files. Whether the prices soften or remain the same, will depend on the demand going into summer, which could be still strong or could be affected by the tariffs.” McDowell continued, “My customers are giving me mixed messages. Some are stating that they are extremely busy while others say that they are slower than they expected. All are nervous of what additional tariffs could do to the market. However, the level of uneasiness also comes in many forms and degrees. The main problems are availability, timing and price of wides in all species.”
Aidan Coyles of Gilbert Smith Forest Products located in Barriere, BC, said, “Supply is still limited and demand is still solid. Price was trending up and tariff talk has cooled off some price appreciation. Customers are struggling with supply and many mills including ours are playing catch up on order files. Uncertainty in the market and cold weather is just hitting the interior this week and last week are causing manufacturing issues. Snow on the coast is limiting the reman group and causing some transportation logistic issues but that seems short lived.”
When asked about any new tariffs Coyles commented, “We see a potential impact to demand and willingness of customers to extend order file out into quarter two, especially if it continues to be a ‘will they or won’t they’ scenario. Just added instability is likely going to cool off any potential price increases.”
