Midwest Business Trends
Uncertainty Despite A Steady Wave In The Midwest
By Chris Fehr
Marketing Consultant / Editor
Softwood activity across the Midwest has shown modest improvement compared to the prior year, with sources reporting steady demand and typical seasonal momentum. While periods of stronger activity have occurred, markets have generally leveled off in many areas, with conditions trending sideways.
Sources described conditions as stable but cautious, noting that while business has improved from previous flatter conditions, uncertainty remains. Balanced movement across species, along with continued pressure from rising freight costs and tightening transportation availability, are shaping current market dynamics.
An Indiana source said softwood activity experienced a period of strong momentum before easing slightly, describing the shift as a natural correction following heightened activity.
“It’s been a little hard to get a pulse on the market lately,” he said. “It’s seesawed a couple of times where you think it’s picking back up, and then it softens again.”
The source, who handles Douglas Fir in custom dimensions rather than commodity products, said his operation focuses on specialty cuts, processing larger timbers rather than standard framing material. He noted that the mill regularly brings in material ranging from 4 x 6 to as large as 20 x 20, cutting down thicker stock to meet specific customer requirements.
Despite short-term fluctuations, he indicated that overall conditions have improved compared to the prior year, which remained relatively flat.
Freight costs remain a concern, particularly for material sourced from the Pacific Northwest, with increases of approximately 20 percent reported. Seasonal competition for trucks, especially from produce shipments, has also impacted availability.
An Iowa source described current activity as steady, following a typical seasonal pattern, with business slightly ahead of the same period in the prior year.
“It’s pretty much on pace, maybe slightly ahead of where we were at this time last year,” he said.
Handling a mix of Western Spruce-Pine-Fir in narrower widths, along with Douglas Fir and Southern Yellow Pine (SYP) in wider material, the source said his company primarily supplies framing lumber in standard one-by and two-by thicknesses. He noted that movement has been relatively balanced across species, with no single category significantly outperforming the others.
Springtime conditions in the Midwest have improved compared to the previous year.
Customer demand has remained consistent, though rising fuel costs continue to influence pricing.
Transportation has tightened on inbound shipments, even as local deliveries within a 250-mile radius have remained stable.
“We’ve noticed it more on the inbound side,” he said. “It’s getting a little tighter, whether that’s fuel or driver availability, or both.”
In Missouri, a source characterized current activity as moderate, with the market maintaining a steady pace without significant swings.
“We’re just kind of grinding along sideways right now,” he said.
He noted that activity has softened slightly from earlier stronger periods, with conditions now holding at similar levels. The source handles a broad mix of softwood products, including SYP, Douglas Fir and Cedar, across a full range of dimensions from one-by and two-by boards to larger timbers.
Among products, specialty panels have shown the strongest performance, while Douglas Fir has remained the most active among traditional softwood lumber items. SYP dimension, particularly in standard sizes, has lagged somewhat behind.
Retail markets have shown some improvement, with expectations for stronger activity moving forward.
Transportation challenges continue to impact operations, with both availability and cost remaining elevated. Freight increases of up to 25 percent were reported in some cases, further contributing to ongoing cost pressures. Looking ahead, most sources expect conditions to remain relatively steady in the near term, with potential for gradual improvement. However, fuel costs, transportation constraints and broader global uncertainty are expected to remain key factors influencing the market going forward.
