Quebec Business Trends May 2026 – Cautious Preparation For The Spring Housing Market Is Underway
Depending on areas contacted some say business is off to a good start, while others say it is slow. Heading into early spring, they comment business is slightly slower than this time last year, while others note it is somewhat better. Domestic and export markets are mixed as well, due to the housing sector being slower caused by higher material costs, global trade, and economic uncertainties. Finding qualified workers remains an issue, along with the ongoing issues surrounding U.S. tariffs.
As production for green and kiln-dried Ash is limited in various areas, markets are stable with prices keeping in line with limited production. Longer lengths are selling better than the shorter stocks.
Depending on areas contacted, Red Oak and Soft Maple demand is better than Hard Maple and White Oak. Hickory appears to be on the rise in volumes and prices. Production is sufficient to meet demand, due to being at a low at this time. As sales prices improved for Hickory, a good volume is going to hardwood flooring manufacturers.
Basswood production is keeping pace with demand, with green and kiln-dried prices stable.
Cherry demand from China is gaining momentum, which in some areas is limiting green production. Some contacts are seeking more Cherry to fulfill export lumber orders. Kiln dried sales indicate stable pricing.
The regionally important Hard Maple is in a balanced supply and demand state. Some mills have switched to other species for the time being as demand slowed somewhat in mid-March. Prices were noted as stable.
Some items of Soft Maple are moving better than others, such as softening demand for green Sap and Better FAS and 1F, as certain end-users switched to No. 1 Common to save on costs.
Poplar production is matching market demand, and prices closely match published listings. Kiln-dried markets are a mixed bag noted contacts: better for FAS than Common grades.
Contacts noted that Hardwood flooring manufacturers were their biggest customer for green No. 2A and 3A Oak, enabling mills to move production of this species. During late winter and early spring, residential flooring manufacturers work to increase their finished goods inventories in preparation for the spring and summer residential construction seasons, but at the same time are trying to avoid having too much raw materials on hand, should the housing market be lackluster in 2026. It was noted that prices were stable for Red Oak, while White Oak was harder to move, thus prices being lower.
Red Oak is reported as more favorable than earlier in the year. Those who export to China are seeing decent volumes shipped, but maintaining higher prices received earlier this year is a challenge. Demand on domestic markets is also improving for sellers. Demand for green production for certain grades and thicknesses align with market needs.
Contacts reported White Oak sales as slow even though logs are available for sawing into lumber. Thus mills are slowing production of this species, while wholesalers are monitoring inventories.
Walnut demand declined in mid-March, with sales fair to wholesalers but slow to furniture producers. Demand from China and Vietnam is fair, but slower on other markets.
The federal government agreed to Quebec’s demand to extend permits for up to 12 months for temporary work permits for skilled workers, while the province processes their permanent residency applications.
Joel Lightbound, federal minister and the prime minister’s Quebec lieutenant, said, despite the extension, however, temporary foreign workers are not a sustainable solution to the country’s labor shortages. He said extensions are only available to people who have already applied to be permanent residents in Quebec.
Quebec Immigration Minister Jean-François Roberge said that the federal government only responded partially to Quebec’s requests, stating the province called on Ottawa to extend temporary permits for all foreign workers in the province outside Montreal and its northern suburb Laval.
Business groups in Quebec say this is a step in the right direction but not enough to address the province’s labor needs.
According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), more than 1.3 million work permits are set to expire by the end of 2026, posing significant economic and labor challenges. Dan Kelly, CFIB president, warned that thousands of workers could face uncertainty due to recent federal changes affecting the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP).
CFIB’s Monthly Business Barometer® indicates that skilled labor shortages are a major constraint for 39 percent of small businesses. A survey revealed that 57 percent of businesses relying on TFWs would scale back growth plans without access to foreign workers, while 52 percent could struggle to fulfill orders. Additionally, 24 percent might reduce operating hours, and 18 percent could face closure.
CFIB calls for a grandfathering clause for current TFWs, seeks pathways to permanent residency for lower-skilled TFWs, and urges reduced administrative burdens and better consultation with employers. This situation highlights the urgent need for stable immigration policies that support small businesses and the contributions to the economy.
