Quebec Business Trends
Stakeholders Caution That Trade Wars With U.S. Likely Far From Over
Production of hardwoods have declined due to lower demand on markets, and also to snowy and cold temperatures that hit through January and February, causing some temporary shut downs to businesses. With Chinese New Year celebrations taking place at the time of this writing, export sales were down slightly during this time.
Although rather quiet to start 2026, there have been signs of increased activity in certain areas such as for sawmills and producers, as weather conditions and log decks improved. Depending on areas contacted, contacts confirmed fair green lumber sales, while kiln-dried sales were mixed.
The regionally important Hard Maple is receiving mixed reports. For some they have good demand and no difficulty in getting their asking price, while others report slow activity with some difficulty receiving their asking prices. Manufacturers have started to ramp up their stocks for the spring season.
Kiln-dried Soft Maple demand is steady, commented contacts, with most grades and thicknesses being manageable. Prices are reported as stable as well.
As Ash production is low, sellers are receiving their asking price for green Ash, due to its scarcity of most trees being decimated by the Emerald Ash Borer. For sawmills, preparing this species takes time to compile full loads. So Ash is not a priority item as logs can be stored in cold weather without degrade. Prices have been seen to rise for some certain grades.
Cherry demand has slowed as inventories were replenished for export markets. There has been an increase in sales on domestic markets, noted some contacts. The situation is similar for kiln-dried stocks.
Hickory flooring and cabinets are appealing to consumers who prefer the natural color contrast in the grain of this species. Demand has been reported as increasing, and supply is sufficient to meet market needs.
Poplar production and demand are steady for most items at this time. It was noted that demand was continuing to rise for this species.
Hardwood production down, lower demand cited among reasons.
Drying operations were struggling with air drying and kiln drying processes due to the winter storms and cold weather conditions. Red Oak inventories of residential flooring manufacturers are sufficient for their short-term needs for finished goods. Demand for this species was noted as increasing to domestic markets.
White Oak is noted as being another of the top selling species, however, supplies exceed demand. As a result, prices for certain grades and thicknesses were reported to be reduced.
Walnut sales have quieted down since 2025 and early 2026. However, competition for Walnut logs is identified as strong, with demand from both domestic and overseas markets.
The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his tariffs imposed on several countries around the world, and fentanyl-related tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, and China.
The U.S. Supreme Court decision to invalidate many of Trump’s tariffs was met with mixed reactions in Quebec, as steel, aluminum and lumber sectors remain subject to U.S. tariffs. Economy Minister Jean Boulet indicated that the government will analyze the impacts of the decision by the highest court in the United States.
“At first glance, its effects for Quebec seem limited,” he commented in mid-February on the social network X, noting that Quebec exports in accordance with the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were already exempt.
Boulet stressed that American tariffs on steel, aluminum (50 percent), lumber and related products (45 percent) remain in place and continue to weaken Quebec industries, jobs and regional economies.
The court thus limited its widespread use of national security provisions to redirect international trade.
This setback for Trump doesn’t prevent him from resorting to other mechanisms to impose sectoral tariffs on the steel, aluminum, automotive, wood and other industries.
Stakeholders from Quebec’s economic and union sectors pointed out that the ruling is far from putting an end to the trade war with the U.S. Union leaders, manufacturers, and economic analysts all stress that the decision is symbolically positive for free trade but has limited real impact on Canada. They also warn that access to the U.S. market remains uncertain, especially with the scheduled review of the USMCA/CUSMA agreement looming this year. In that context, they urge the federal government to defend the sectors still affected by U.S. tariffs and to increase support for the industries and workers who continue to bear the economic burden.
