Ontario/Quebec Business Trends
Canada Lumber Industry Navigates Challenges
Richard Lipman
Guest Writer
Trade issues continue to impact eastern Canadian lumber producers, and the efforts of both industry and government to plan for the future continue in earnest. The Quebec summer construction holiday is fast approaching, starting in mid-July for 2 weeks. During this break, nearly all construction sites covered by the CCQ (Quebec Construction Commission, a union) are mandated to close, affecting 200,000 workers across all sectors, from residential to commercial to civil engineering projects etc. The shutdown is mandatory under the collective bargaining agreements and the law, so opting out is not an option for workers.
Natural Resources Canada price data shows eastern SPF 2×4 current and 4-week average prices at $565 Cdn. and the 52-week average at $586. People noted that North American lumber futures just rose to approx. USD $597.50 per thousand board feet, reaching their highest levels in eight weeks, up 4.1 percent from the previous month, showing the market is still being impacted by the disruption of Canadian softwood imports. Predictions of hot, dry weather for the summer have been made, but the fire season to date has been quite tame. The number of hectares burned so far this year is approximately 5 percent of what the 10-year national average has been. Only about 18,000 hectares of forest have burned, compared to the average of 519,000 hectares for this time of year. Because both 2023 and 2025 set records for fires, those years brought national averages up. The warning is that “this summer retains the potential to be a significant one right across the country.” After British Columbia, the second greatest risk of wildfires is in southern Ontario and Quebec, with the risk expected to be highest in June.
Interfor has reported on its first quarter 2026 results. They noted in their outlook that benchmark lumber prices rebounded in Q1 2026 and the upward momentum continued into early Q2 2026, in several lumber categories. The Eastern SPF Composite lumber price rose US$66 or 14 percent from the end of December 2025 through to the end of April. Industry-wide market curtailments, seasonal demand factors and logistics constraints, particularly in the U.S., are expected to drive on-going price fluctuations in 2026. Oil price fluctuations are also expected to impact ongoing volatility in end-use demand, logistics costs and raw material purchases, while at the same time potentially hindering offshore imports from Europe. Over the mid-term, Canadian lumber is expected to remain a key source of supply to meet U.S. needs. Over the same period, the North American lumber market is expected to continue to benefit from favorable underlying demand fundamentals, including the advanced age of the U.S. housing stock, a shortage of available housing and various demographic factors.
Following temporary closures and re-openings since late in 2024, Domtar has expressed a willingness to sell their Maniwaki, Quebec sawmill. The situation has impacted over 100 employees. The mill was part of Resolute Forest Products before Domtar acquired them. The company blamed U.S. softwood lumber duties and difficult markets for the closure in 2025. They think finding local ownership would be the best scenario for the facility, as the company does not see a recovery any time soon. Part of the reason the sawmill would re-open would be around its agreement with the province to purchase wood.
GreenFirst Forest Products noted in its first quarter 2026 financial results that benchmark prices saw increases which resulted in an average realized lumber price of $666/mfbm, which was higher than the $654/mfbm pricing realized in Q4 2025. They noted the first quarter results were impacted by temporary mill curtailments in January and logistic disruptions related to winter weather conditions across parts of Canada and the NE US, consistent with seasonal variability. These factors affected both production and shipments, resulting in lower sales volume compared to the final quarter of 2025. Market conditions evolved positively over the course of the quarter. While pricing momentum was encouraging, volatility remains a characteristic of their markets and they continue to take a prudent near-term view. Operationally, winter conditions supported a productive log harvesting season, positioning their fiber supply well for 2026.
Recently, Interfor announced that its facilities in Gogama and in Nairn Centre, ON will see indefinite curtailment of operations. Local authorities expect some 200 or more good paying jobs will be affected. An Interfor rep told CTV News that “like many others in our sector, we are navigating a combination of persistent market headwinds and the continued impact of US trade actions, including softwood lumber duties. These pressures have made it increasingly difficult to operate certain facilities in a sustainable way. We recognize the impact this has on our employees, their families and the broader community and we are working with these stakeholders as this decision is implemented.” “Every weeks brings another closure, another community in crisis,” said Unifor national President Lana Payne, in response to these most recent closures.
While these closures were being announced, the Ontario Government was unveiling its new 10-year plan to revitalize the embattled forest industry. The new Roadmap to Protecting Ontario’s Forest Sector is a major announcement, and is less optimistic than the previous 10-year plan. There are 3 pillars and 9 objectives and steps outlined in the Roadmap, aimed at helping to keep over 100 mills and forest products facilities across Ontario open and operating. This will provide good jobs for 158,000 workers, at the same time as attracting future investment and developing new markets. The Roadmap meets the threat of unprecedented US trade measures with a focused plan to protect the workers businesses and communities of Ontario’s forest sector. This is the government’s renewed long-term forestry plan which positions the province to succeed and lead in the new global forest economy.
“I know it is a difficult time for the sector,” Premier Doug Ford told the delegates to the Ontario Forest Industries Association conference recently. “We have the largest plan to build in Canadian history, with Ontario taxpayers supporting Ontario workers. We depend on a strong forestry sector. And if you don’t act immediately, you end up in last place.” Ontario has seen curtailments or closures in a number of Ontario mills since their last plan to enhance the forestry sector in 2020.
Ontario will defend its forest sector, to confront unfair trade measures. The province will help the sector adapt to meet evolving markets, by reducing regulatory burden and red tape, they will build industry’s competitive advantage and create new revenue streams by modernizing key facilities and unlocking new export markets. Through policy changes and support to develop and commercialize ground-breaking products, Ontario will build a future-ready sector, attract global investment and power continued domestic and international expansion. Ontario will continue to work to maximize the value of wood, with industry-led innovation transforming underused wood and mill by products into value added products that meet growing demand for renewable and sustainable alternatives. In the announcement, the Minister noted that despite a long history as our closest trading partner, the US government has targeted the forest sector with hostile tariffs and unjustified increased duties on softwood lumber. This disruption to global trade threatens Ontario’s forest sector and the contributions it makes to our province’s economy and our communities.
The Ontario Forest industries Association welcomed the release of the Roadmap. Ian Dunn, President and CEO stated “the people of Ontario need to know that while forest products are probably the most trade-impacted industry, we have also learned that no industry is immune from similar treatment and that not all segments of the forest industry face the same issues. We applaud the ambitious goals set out by Minister Harris, Associate Minister Holland and Premier Ford. As an industry, we are committed to working with indigenous and community leaders, organized labor and the province to ensure these objectives are met and to take immediate steps to protect our industry and protect Ontario.”
The Canadian Forest Sector Transformation Task Force, announced by the federal Minister of Energy and Natural Resources back in early 2026, will soon release its final report. Their mandate was to promptly identify practical measures to transform and retool Canada’s forestry sector.
