West Coast Business Trends
Seasonal Slowdown Compounded By Duties/Tariffs
By Zach Miller
At the time of this writing this strange year is soon to be over and 2026 is quickly approaching. The economic picture is cloudy at best, home prices are still too high for first time home buyers even with decreased mortgage rates. The seasonal slowdown as well as sluggish building pace have created curtailments and closures on both sides of the border, and the new anti-dumping countervailing duties aren’t doing Canadian manufacturers any favors. The following comments are what a few West Coast manufactures had to say about the marketplace.
Dean Garofano of Delta Forestry Group, Pitt Meadows, BC said, “With winter now in full force and with the addition of the compounded 45 percent in duties and tariffs, it should be no surprise that lumber demand has come to a crawl. For the most part, lumber prices have not increased to help offset the duty increase that spiked from 15 percent to 45 percent. A clear example of this is evident in SPF framing lumber composite pricing. The current price is well under 400/m, which is a full 100/m below last year at this time when we had 15 percent instead of 45 percent in duties and tariffs. The result of these increased duties and tariffs has been numerous sawmill curtailment announcements the past two months. The lack of sawmill production is also impacting supply for those sectors using the by-products, such as pulp and pellet mills which has put the entire forestry sector of British Columbia in turmoil.” Garofano continued, “The coastal log market saw Fir and Cedar prices come down in September and October, but they have stabilized since then. Hemlock sawlogs stayed stubbornly high this whole time and continue to be difficult to source. Prohibitive logging weather will soon approach; therefore, coastal logs should stay on the lean side for the foreseeable future. The current environment is one of low demand and low supply; however, both are expected to show some improvement this spring. In the meantime, it will be a challenging winter for producers on this side of the border.”
Aidan Coyles of Gilbert Smith Forest Products, Barriere, BC said this when asked about supply and demand: “Price is softening and demand is low due to seasonal pressure and tariff/duty challenges.” Coyles continued, “Our customers’ mood is a bit of a mixed sentiment; some are waiting to see what the market does while others are buying in anticipation of Spring demand.” When asked about what to expect next year Coyles commented, “We suspect there will be log supply issues in Q1 with all of the recent announced curtailments and overall lack of activity. Not sure how it’s going to go, we’re just along for the ride, whichever way the wind blows.”
An unnamed West Coast manufacturer said, “We’re noticing supply is available currently but seasonal slowdown is keeping things pretty quiet. Most of our customers are purchasing as needed, not a lot of orders coming in to stock for Spring, some are switching to cheaper species, again it’s a pretty slow period. The main manufacturing issue for us is log supply remains tight. Labor has been ok and transportation has not been a problem. We are optimistic that things will pick up in 2026 but it’s going to take some time to recoup and get back to good footing.”
