Southeast Business Trends July 2026 – A Stagnant And Tough Southeastern Lumber Market
Reports from hardwood lumber representatives throughout the Southeast share common denominators: challenges caused by fuel prices, supply and demand, lacking labor and a tight cross-tie market.
The market, according to one source in Kentucky, is “very stagnant. There are multiple causes but to be honest, it is supply and demand not meeting up.”
He shared that it is worse than six months ago, and he believes the cross-tie market is more challenging than the lumber market.
He compared his company to Walmart, stating, “We don’t just handle lumber, we’re like Walmart — doing from the top to the bottom with products.” They offer Red and White Oak, Cherry, Poplar, Hickory, Ash, Hackberry and Beech in 4/4 through 12/4. “Red Oak is our dominant species. 65 percent of the Red Oak lumber four years ago was ending up in China. Where is it today? No one can tell me that,” he said.
They sell to end users and while they don’t export directly, they sell to middlemen who do. “With the market the way it is right now,” he said, “we better be using all potential customers. I speak to sawmillers and people in this business every day and they are all worried about what is going on.”
Labor is not an issue for them but “paying someone what we have to pay them to do the job, is a problem,” he noted. “We’re paying them more for labor but getting less work out of them – that’s the American way.
“There’s a big wheel here and it has a lot of spokes. Normally in our business, there are two spokes out of it, maybe three, but now there are 10 spokes. The wheel is getting ready to break. There’s always something going on whether it is stumpage, moving the lumber, cutting too much or too little, or cutting this species this week and this one next week. There are too many challenges going on at the same time. I’ve done this for 30 years, and I’ve never seen this many difficulties going on at once.
“On top of this, I’m sitting on a million plus board feet right now because we have logged all spring and winter. Now, we have a lot of people with a huge inventory that are trying to cut back and over the past couple of months, this has gotten drastic. We’re moving our product day by day,” he stated.
He shared his belief that there is “too much fear in the industry right now” and “it is very hard to make money.”
He commented on the rising fuel prices, stating, “Everyone is feeling the pressure from the fuel prices, so how much longer can the American people stand it? It’s nonsense.”
In Arkansas, one lumber representative shared that while they are “moving cants and pallets, the tie market is getting tighter.” Overall, high grade lumber products included, the market is tight and worse than six months ago.
“We mainly do Red and White Oak, a little Ash and very little Cherry, Walnut and Gum,” he shared. White Oak is the best seller, and they mainly offer their lumber in 4/4 and 5/4.
Their primary customer is the flooring market. He described what he believed to be happening in the marketplace. “I think what we are seeing is high inventory and less usage of lumber products. I think people are getting concerned and are pulling back because they don’t want to stick a ton of money into inventory. Even pulpwood is a challenging market – one week they’re taking pulpwood, the next they aren’t. It’s hard to go into a hardwood tract and not be able to get rid of the pulpwood. In this industry today, there is a fair amount of uncertainty – not just on the lumber end but on the pallet, tie and pulpwood end.”
They have been affected by the fuel prices but their advantage, he noted, was having their own trucks. “Once we get a load completed, we can haul it right away as long as we don’t exceed our volume specs. I think it’s a little bit of an advantage for us right now, not for costs, but for getting material shipped quicker, which is going to minimize stain issues.”
Labor is poor. “Nobody wants to work – we’re not getting applicants. Working in a sawmill is not a big paying job, so we sort of ended up getting the bottom of the list. A lot of them are undependable, unreliable and just don’t care. Employment in this industry, in our area, is terrible.”
A source in North Carolina had a different experience with the market, stating, “It is going pretty well right now. I’d say sales-wise, we’re okay, but there are all kinds of external issues that we have to deal with daily. It’s similar to six months ago, but maybe a little tougher.”
Poplar is their only species, and it is handled in 4/4 and 5/4. “There seems to be a good amount of green supply right now for us and we are able to get plenty. As far as kiln-dried sales between the domestic and export market, it’s okay. The prices aren’t great, but we’re moving product,” he added.
Furniture, moulding, millwork and cabinetry companies are their customers.
“Transportation is bad right now, especially with the fuel prices going up. We’ve got a lot of lanes that have really gone up by over 30 percent, which has caused problems. I think that, coupled with the lack of drivers, has really put a strain on the trucking market.”
