Midwest Business Trends
Market Stability Leaves Midwest Looking For Brighter Days
Chris Fehr
Marketing Consultant / Editor
Midwest sources at press time expressed continued struggles with tariffs, with the first quarter of this year done, sources show higher expectations for 2026.
According to a South Dakota distributor the market has “picked up” for them in past weeks but overall, it has been “on the slow side” this season. “It’s a little slower than six months ago because interest rates have people scared,” he said.
His company offers Southern Yellow Pine, SPF, Hem Fir and Douglas Fir in 2-inch dimensional lumber with the SPF selling the best. “We sell to retail lumber yards; some are slow and some are super busy. It’s just been hit or miss,” he said.
When asked about transportation he said, “it’s been spotty but nothing out of the ordinary. The tariffs have been a pain to deal with.”
A Texas lumber yard spokesman said the market is a “struggle every day” and that he has seen “everyone’s attitude go from neutral to sour” in previous weeks.
“It’s worse than six months ago, going into the year people were like ‘we think by second quarter things will turn around’, and I don’t think any of that has really panned out the way everyone had written out,” he said.
They sell Southern Yellow Pine in No. 2 Common, No. 3 Common, No. 4 Common and a No. 3 and No. 4 mix for industrial use. All their products are 1-inch, 1×4 and 1×6, with decking 5/4×6 edge. The standard edge decking is selling the best.
“Primarily we sell to treating plants. Retail sales have been sluggish, big box stores really struggled in spring, and that looked like it was nationwide. There wasn’t the big spring push that everyone kind of banks on the first quarter of the year,” he said.
While transportation hasn’t been an issue for them, they have had “decent complaints” from their customer base. “We haven’t been affected by the tariffs directly; we’re kind of insulated a bit because there’s not a direct competing radius edge decking that we are up against. Like everyone else in the business however, we were kind of hoping we’d get a bit of a pull through with the tariffs,” he said.
“We are struggling looking for brighter days ahead. Kind of like the adage of the Southern Pine business, you make it in the first two quarters and try not to give it back in the second two quarters. I don’t think anyone’s ever made their year in July, August or September,” he said.
A lumber wholesaler out of Missouri said the market is “much better” compared to the first half of the year and that they are “just playing catch up” from the slow start of the first quarter.
SPF, Southern Yellow Pine and Douglas Fir are popular in the Midwest
“It’s better than six months ago, I don’t think there’s any one reason why. I think people are starting to settle into this economy and they are getting past some of the uneasiness that people had with nationwide interest rates. Tariffs are obviously a big part of this. So, I think it’s a little bit of everything,” he said.
They offer Spruce, Cedar and green Douglas Fir in 2×4 through 2×12 with green Douglas Fir selling the best. “We sell to distributors; we are wholesale only. We sell to the big box stores and then all the independent lumber dealers. For the most part its contractor yards, lumber yards, box stores like Home Depot and Lowes,” he said.
“They are saying similar things, particularly for lumber yards who cater to professional builders and contractors, I think the box stores may still be a bit off, they have so much DIY business and there’s some people out there who have been sitting on their disposable income, new fences and new decks that may have hampered the business this year,” he said.
Transportation has not been an issue for his company, but the costs associated with trucking has “gone up.” He said, “fuel has stabilized or even gone down some, but trucking has been a little more difficult, nothing like two or three years ago, but I think it’s seasonal.”
Regarding the current state of the tariffs, “from Canada it’s certainly going to affect things, that’s an immediate jump in the market. They keep going back and forth and they have for months, so the uncertainty is what’s bothering everybody. I don’t think too many people care if it’s 15 percent or 20 just whatever it is settle on it, so we know,” he said.
“I don’t think between now and the end of the year there’s going to be any significant move, like this all of a sudden boom in housing permits, I think it’ll be steady as she goes and we will see what next year brings,” he said.
