Midwest Business Trends
Mediocre Midwestern Market Meets Cautious Optimism
By Chris Fehr
Marketing Consultant / Editor
Softwood suppliers across the Midwest described market conditions this quarter as steady but uneven, with overall activity improving compared to earlier in the year. While quoting has outpaced ordering in some areas, recent weeks have shown encouraging signs of increased demand, and many contacts expressed cautious optimism for the months ahead.
A Texas-based supplier said his markets had been “pretty flat” throughout much of the quarter, with a pickup only in the last couple of weeks. “There’s been a lot of quoting and not much ordering here lately,” he said. “This whole quarter seems like it’s been pretty flat, but as of the last couple weeks, it seems like the activity’s really picked up and the orders have started to pick up again. So, I’m hopeful things are starting to go the right direction.”
Compared to the prior quarter, he described conditions as “better,” attributing the shift largely to falling interest rates. “I think the main thing that’s got it kind of jump-started here is the fact that they lowered interest rates and people are hopeful they’re going to lower them one or two more times before the end of the year.”
The Texas contact reported handling Douglas Fir and Western Red Cedar, with sizes ranging from one-inch stock up to 20×20 timbers. He noted that customer feedback varies by segment. “If they’re heavier to the production side, they’ve been very slow. The ones that are tied in more with the custom have been a lot more optimistic.”
Transportation, he said, has not been a challenge, though he cited Canadian tariffs as a negative factor, particularly driving up Cedar prices. Looking ahead, he expressed cautious optimism: “I don’t think we’re going to have a huge uptick, but I see things getting better every month. That’s how I’m kind of planning our business model.”
Despite rather flat yet slightly uneven market conditions, Midwest lumber representatives hold out hope.
In Missouri, a supplier likewise described conditions as “trending flat,” though with slight improvement in recent weeks. Handling primarily Douglas Fir and SPF, he noted that Fir accounts for about three-quarters of his company’s shipments.
“It’s probably moving about the same as this time last year,” he said, adding that his customer base, dealers, chain lumberyards, and box stores, are experiencing markets similar to his own.
He reported that trucking availability has been strong this year, with little to no transportation disruption.
“Transportation has not been an issue. The trucking industry is not lagging, and there’s a lot of availability this year,” he said. Like his Texas counterpart, he pointed to interest rates as a potential catalyst for stronger demand.
“Interest rates are coming down, so we hope that will spur activity, but it’s up to the housing market. We have reserved optimism for the next six months.”
From Oklahoma, a supplier described market conditions as “soft to middle of the road,” but noted stability across his wide product mix. His firm handles most every softwood species in 4/4 through 8/4, which has allowed them to serve a broad customer base.
“We’re stable at least,” he said. “Housing starts will pick up again in the spring and we’ll all see some relief. But for now, we’re stable at least.” He expressed optimism for the remainder of the year and into next year, citing housing demand as the key driver.
Overall, softwood suppliers in the Midwest appear to be navigating a flat-to-improving market, with lower interest rates sparking renewed optimism. Douglas Fir remains a key driver of supply, while Western Red Cedar pricing continues to feel the effects of Canadian tariffs. With transportation challenges largely absent, many in the region are watching closely to see whether easing financial pressures and housing activity can sustain momentum into the new year.
