Sources on the West Coast account for slower business conditions at the time of this writing after a busy first quarter.
One contact in Washington said, “April was probably 40 percent slower, but we had a good first quarter.” As for what contributes to the slowdown he said, “We work with quite a few mills and talk to a lot more. We don’t feel that lumber production is up right now. In fact, production from a week ago is down a bit. Demand is the biggest factor. We can’t put a finger on why demand is down because housing isn’t as bad as the interest rates make it sound. People are still building homes but the demand for lumber nevertheless is down.”
The source said the overall feel of the cabinet industry is in a good place despite a slowdown. “People that build parts for cabinets and cabinet builders have slowed down. Business is somewhat peak and valley but we have good orders in the near term. We don’t know what we’re going to do after that.”
He indicated lumber species movement was mixed. “Rift and quartered White Oak is selling the best right now,” he said. “The Maples are still the ‘big dog’ and Poplar is moving OK. Red and White Oak are about the same, with average movement.”
When asked about his customers’ business he said, “They’re doing about the same as us. March was great but April went quiet. A lot of them saw a reduction in hours until order files built up. The overall feel is cautious. We’re selling more mixed loads than any straight loads of just one species.”
On the transportation side, he said, “Transportation is easy; that industry is slow right now so they’re begging for work. People are watching too much news and talking themselves into a slowdown in my opinion. For people that don’t pay in 30 days, it’s starting to cost us more money to carry their balances.” Transportation was a non-issue for the buyer who also said housing is down and impacting the market in general.
In California, another lumber buyer reports similar activity. “We are still operating on an order-to-order basis,” he explained. “People don’t commit until they have the money in hand and then it’s, ‘Let’s go!’ You have to have inventory in order to substantiate moving it.” The contact said species movement was about the same. “We’re moving the same as we have for the last few months. Walnut is probably in the lead followed by White Oak.”
An Oregon source said orders are – in a nutshell – hand-to-mouth. “When they get the order, we get the order for lumber. There’s not a lot of order files going on. Overall our customer sales aren’t bad, but you have to work at it. There may be nothing going on all week, then two days later a large order comes in and they need it by Friday.” His advice to others experiencing similar pains was to expect the worst and prepare for the best. “If you personalize this, you’ll go crazy. But if you roll with the punches, you’ll be fine. Have a plan, and make sure you have the right inventory.”
