West Coast Business Trends
West Coast Focuses On Navigating A Chaotic Path Forward
By Zach Miller
At the time of this writing the West Coast is in the midst of one of the worst fire seasons in recent memory. Commodity lumber prices are improving at a lethargic pace even with continued mill curtailments and closures. Tariff and duty uncertainty strikes a chaotic chord for Canadian manufacturers. Meanwhile local and federal governments on both sides of the border are trying to mitigate some of the pain with industry grants and investments. Time will tell if they are just a bandaid or the spark many businesses and communities need. The following is what a few West Coast producers had to say about their business:
Dean Garofano of Delta Forestry Group, Pitt Meadows, BC, said, “As we work our way through the second half of 2026, as expected, it is shaping up to be a challenging year for most forestry companies. For manufacturers here in BC our plywood, fiberboard and veneer producers are eagerly waiting to see if the new 50 percent 338 tariffs come into effect on August 19th. On top of tariffs, there continues to be many factors at play that present significant challenges for manufacturers right through to the retailers.”
Garofano continued, “Stable access to cost competitive fiber continues to be elusive here on the Coast. The result of this lack of dependable supply is that log prices are too high to make it work. For example, Cedar and Hemlock log prices continued to rise the first half of this year, while simultaneously observing Cedar lumber prices declining. Currently, there are many forest fires raging across the continent that are creating health risks and destruction as well as impacting construction and consumer take away. Responsible forest management can play a big part in reducing these threats. Instead of reducing the available timber, we could be using science informed forest management to help drive our economies and reduce wildfire risks to communities. Once logs are secured and manufactured, the prohibitive lumber duties and tariffs make selling with any profit difficult. These high lumber prices are then competing for consumer attention with alternatives as well as everyday essentials like food, gas and shelter, and for those with any discretionary money, family vacations/travelling. On a slightly positive note, log prices have finally stabilized or started to come down here on the coast and some duty relief is expected soon. We are working hard to find some positive threads at this challenging time.”
“Customers report being very busy one day and slow the next two. We are definitely seeing more challenges this year. The labor market continues to be starved of talent that actually wants to work.”
A U.S. West Coast producer who wished to remain anonymous had this to share, “Prices continue to move up in the world of timbers due to the lack of supply. This market has more strength than most realize because of the lack of production. Most cutting mills have a 30-45 day order file and are very bullish on quotes coming across their desks today. Jobs and deliveries have been stalled the first half of the year and seem to slowly be releasing. This has caused a little uptick in demand that put even more pressure on prices and availability. We are seeing a huge value increase for just-in-time-inventory. There is little to no wood on the ground to absorb these new job releases. The mood of our customers is positive. I hear this year is trending flat to slightly up over last year. I do hear from some markets that report being off 17-25 percent over 2025 sales. There really is such a mixed market across the U.S. I also hear the consistency of business does not seem to be there. Customers report being very busy one day and slow the next two. We are definitely seeing more challenges this year. The labor market continues to be starved of talent that actually wants to work. We have some locations that cannot get any qualified applicants to apply. We are also seeing big challenges in logistics. There are some trucking routes that are almost impossible to find trucks for. We have to be very creative in helping trucks find backhauls to get certain shipments out. The fires in the PNW will soon play into the already high priced log markets. We have not fully seen the challenges this will bring to us soon. This all being said I think we will have a firm lumber market for a bit.”
John McDowell of Oregon Industrial Lumber Products, Springfield, OR, said, “Supply and demand seem to be out of whack at this moment. But not in the usual unbalance that occurs when it leans one way or the other. Today we see demand for small quantities of various items in Yellow Cedar and Doug Fir because people are still nervous and do not want to own inventory. Most likely due to the hope that the tariff/duty situation may improve this fall. On the other end Canadian mills are not cutting as often or offering as much material as usual when it comes to those species (and probably others like Hemlock) due to necessary high prices again due to the boarder situation. I also believe that other markets have grown for the Canadians when it comes to high value softwoods. Most likely in Europe and South Asia. Prices seem to be bouncing back and forth a bit but generally staying the same.”
McDowell continued, “Customers are unwilling to own inventory but most say that business is ok. They say that most challenges are trucking costs, and timelines for products that they are not inventorying. Most big log mills in the PNW say that their log supply is steady. Labor overall is in a happy middle though there is pressure from employees at mills to raise pay due to rising costs for everyone. However, most mills overhead is also increasing at a pace not met by increasing orders or pricing. It’s a bit of a stalemate. Transportation is extremely expensive in most cases, making small purchases more difficult and less lucrative. Drought, fires and smoke are making for a tough summer on most parts of the lumber industry. The overall feeling is that it’s tough out there but not terrible. There also seems to be a glimmer of better times to come if you can skate through this summer unscathed.”
A Canadian West Coast producer who wished to remain anonymous had this to say, “The wood products market is undergoing an aggressive ‘capacity rationalization.’ The era of steady, predictable pricing has been replaced by calculated volatility. Canadian producers and U.S. importers are navigating a chaotic regulatory landscape. Total combined U.S. duties and tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber approach 35 percent, forcing buyers to continually adjust their margins. Retail chain yards and structural buyers are keeping their inventories incredibly lean. The core threat to the industry right now isn’t just market demand—it is an unstable access to affordable wood fiber. This is particularly critical in British Columbia. Near-term spikes in diesel and fuel immediately impact the bottom line via increased freight surcharges. This adds friction to the log-hauling segment (getting timber to the mill) and increases the landed cost of finished lumber delivered to retail chain yards.”
