Quebec Business Trends October 2026 – Quebec Braces For More Tariff Turmoil As Important Lumber Species Reported As Sluggish
(Editor’s Note: At press time, Canada responded to President Trump’s Aug. 22 imposition of 50 percent new tariffs by announcing retaliatory tariffs, also up to 50 percent on many U.S. products. These tariffs appear to target roughly the same products as the U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and were due to go into effect Sept. 8, 2026, according to the American Hardwood Export Council.)
With summer behind us, and fall upon us, it has been an uncertain time for industry amid the U.S. tariffs imposed on Canada, and the ending of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico (CUSMA) agreement. Business is even more challenging as much uncertainty is felt across the country. Contacts are concerned about inventory growth and what these tariffs and counter tariffs will mean to Canadian businesses.
The regionally important species Hard and Soft Maple, was reported as sluggish. Through controlled purchases of logs and lumber, mills and concentration yards, respectively, were able to reduce production to control inventory growth. Contacts noted limited demand for Soft Maple, with kiln-dried prices softened. Cherry interest from China has slowed somewhat prompting inventory growth, which resulted in downward prices for certain kiln-dried items.
Poplar is moving from mills and wholesalers. Green Hickory prices were in an upward trend, while a downward pressure was felt for thicker-stock FAS Red Oak, due to continued difficulty to ship to the Middle East.
Green Ash supplies to kiln operations would be welcome as what they purchase is moving well as kiln-dried. However, with the Emerald Ash Borer decimating tree stands, it impacts available resources. Green prices are stable, noted contacts.
Basswood demand is steady with certain areas where supplies of green 4/4 No. 1 Common and Better is exceeding demand.
Demand for green items of Hickory was readily absorbing production, although reports were mixed in the interest it was generating.
Some flooring manufacturers would like more Red Oak, while others are purchasing at replacement levels. It was reported that finished goods sales were stronger for Red Oak than White Oak flooring.
Green Red Oak was decent to wholesalers and residential and truck trailer flooring plants. It was noted that the Chinese market was consuming less kiln-dried Red Oak. With difficulties still being felt to ship to the Middle East, it resulted in larger volumes of thicker-stock Red Oak being offered to Asian markets at lower prices.
White Oak sales over the summer months were based more on longer lengths rather than shorter ones. Sales to global markets are down, and so limited receipts were the norm during this time.
Demand on both domestic and export markets kept green and kiln-dried Poplar moving well. Contacts commented that sales required more work, with producers noting No. 2A and Better inventory accumulations. Sellers noted that some loads were moving below-list prices for inventory management and cash flow purposes.
Kiln-dried markets of Walnut became more active recently, especially for No. 2A than for FAS or No. 1 Common.
Quebec entered a more serious phase of the Canada-U.S. trade war on August 22 after trade talks collapsed and the Trump administration imposed new 50 percent tariffs on about $28 billion in Canadian goods. These tariffs come on top of existing U.S. duties on industries such as steel, aluminum, automobiles and softwood lumber.
Quebec was expected to be particularly affected. Its goods already face an average U.S. tariff of 7 percent, the highest in Canada, which could rise to about 11 percent. Key industries at risk include plastics, electrical machinery, furniture, and wood products. Quebec’s exports to the U.S. fell 7.6 percent to $40 billion over the past year, while softwood lumber exports dropped 28 percent.
Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended negotiations after the U.S. added last-minute demands involving auto trade, Canadian content, trade agreements with other countries, and protections for language and culture. Carney said the U.S. demanded too much while offering too little.
Canada will respond with dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs, targeting products such as steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. The measures were expected to take effect after Labor Day, alongside support for affected businesses and workers.
Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette said the province would take action to support businesses and workers affected by the tariffs.
The Quebec Federation of Chambers of Commerce called the situation a “worst-case scenario.” Its survey found that affected companies were already reporting average losses of $2.07 million, potentially rising to $6.09 million within six months, with expected job losses increasing from an average of 10 to 38 per company.
