West Coast Business Trends October 2026 – West Coast Sources Adopt Wait-And-See Attitude
Hardwood suppliers on the West Coast reported generally slower market conditions recently, with economic uncertainty, higher interest rates, tariffs and sharply increased transportation costs weighing on activity. Still, contacts noted pockets of demand and expressed varying degrees of optimism heading into the fall.
In California, a hardwood distribution yard described recent activity as “a little bit lackluster.”
“It’s been okay,” the contact said, “but nothing we’re super excited over.”
The company handles most North American domestic hardwood species, with Poplar representing its largest volume for moulding and millwork. Red and White Oak, Walnut and Maple are also among its primary species.
White Oak continues to generate strong demand, although buying behavior has changed. “Customers are shopping Oak a lot harder and being much more mindful of what they’re paying for jobs,” he said.
He attributed some of that caution to broader uncertainty, which has caused customers to delay projects that otherwise appeared ready to move forward. “There’s just still a lot of uncertainty,” he said. “It’s causing people to pause or put jobs on hold.”
One potential bright spot is rebuilding following the fires in the Palisades and Altadena areas.
The distributor said there is some positive activity associated with rebuilding, but the process has developed more slowly than initially anticipated.
Transportation is another significant concern. The distributor described its impact as a “big negative,” citing high diesel costs, ocean freight and the expense of moving hardwood from Eastern sawmills. “It’s increased our cost of goods significantly,” he said, “squeezing everybody down on margin.”
Looking ahead 30 to 90 days, he expects conditions to gradually improve as summer vacations end, children return to school and business settles into a more normal routine. He also hopes ocean freight rates will ease following peak shipping season. “I tend to be more optimistic,” he said. “I think we will see some, albeit slow, improvement.”
An Oregon hardwood wholesaler supplying most domestic hardwood lumber species said export markets are currently flat, largely as a result of tariffs. “Domestic business has fared better, remaining relatively consistent with last year and perhaps showing a slight uptick,” he explained. “However, rising costs continue to pressure the market. Diesel fuel costs are at record highs right now.”
According to the wholesaler, transportation costs have increased approximately 30 percent. He attributed much of the slower business activity to the sluggish economy and higher interest rates.
Another California source – hardwood wholesaler – handling a broad range of domestic species, including Red and White Oak, Maple and Cherry, offered a more cautious assessment. “Honestly, right now it’s kind of slow,” he said.
White Oak and Walnut are currently among the wholesaler’s strongest movers, while Cherry and Pecan have been considerably slower.
The contact said customers have contracts signed but, in many cases, have yet to establish starting dates for the work. This summer was slower than the company typically experiences.
“This year, it’s actually way slower during the summer than what it was in previous years,” he said. “which is kind of scary.”
Unlike the other West Coast contacts, transportation availability itself has not presented a problem. Labor, however, remains challenging for both the wholesaler and its customers, including cabinet shops and contractors.
Tariffs are also creating difficulties with some products, particularly by extending lead times. Perhaps the larger concern is customer confidence. The wholesaler said political and economic uncertainty is causing customers to hold onto their money, including customers at the upper end of the market. “It’s scary when the high-end customer doesn’t want to spend their money,” he said.
The wholesaler believes the next month or two could be particularly telling. If activity does not begin improving during that period, he fears the slower conditions could persist through the remainder of the year.
