Ontario Trends 2025 – Changes Across Canada And Hardwood Demand
It has been quite a busy time across Canada with a federal election, the Liberal leader Mark Carney elected Canada’s new Prime Minister (PM) in May, the unveiling of his crisis-era Cabinet to confront Donald Trump’s trade war, rebuild the economy and redefine Canada-U.S. relationships. There has been much to keep businesses busy, as well as waiting to see the impacts of the Trump tariffs changing almost on a daily basis and what it will mean to them. The new PM and his Cabinet immediately took on the challenging files and got to work on Canadians’ behalf.
The PM said, “Canada’s new Ministry is built to deliver the change Canadians want and deserve. Everyone is expected and empowered to show leadership – to bring new ideas, a clear focus, and decisive action to their work.”
The PM also announced that a much more comprehensive, effective, ambitious, prudent budget would be announced in the fall. This gives government time to figure out both the economic and fiscal outlook as it engages with the U.S. on tariffs and with allies on defense spending. The coming NATO summit, which took place June 24 and 25, could have fiscal implications for Canada. NATO is currently rethinking an increase to its defense spending target, as the U.S. pushes for a benchmark of 5 percent of a country’s GDP. The Carney government is also looking at ways to reduce its own costs, which will also affect the budget.
On the hardwood side, with spring wet weather and cooler conditions, logging activities were delayed in certain areas of the province. The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, thus it is having an impact on Canadian sales and markets. Other concerns are the tariffs being imposed from the U.S., and the reciprocal Canadian tariffs, including other foreign tariffs and their effects on businesses and the world economy.
Ash sales are steady, reported contacts, while demand from international markets are controlled. Supplies are sufficient to meet buyers’ needs. Aspen production in certain areas has declined, and so prices have risen over time, but demand is not great, particularly in the lower grades. Kiln-dried inventories are thin, reported some contacts, for No. 1 Common and Better grades. Markets are absorbing supplies.
With the housing sectors on both sides of the border slowing down due to economic and tariff uncertainties, business reports are mixed for Hard Maple. For some mills it is easy to obtain orders of green Hard Maple produced, while others are restricted to shipping to steady customers only. Sawmills are prioritizing other species as well such as Red Oak where possible, as the issue of Hard Maple logs is staining. Supplies are meeting demand for kiln-dried items.
Sawmills are keeping Soft Maple production along with other whitewoods in supply, which are being absorbed by secondary manufacturers and wholesalers. Prices are reported as firm. Kiln-dried business is also good, while inventories for selective items are low.
Aspen demand has lessened, especially for the lower grades. Contacts noted that kiln-dried inventories are thin, however markets are readily absorbing available supplies.
Basswood has seen more of a demand on North American domestic users rather than to export markets. Demand for some grades are outpacing supplies, thus prices edged up. Demand for some upper grades are not that good as lower grades. Birch demand of upper grades are doing well, while premium color material is seeing higher demand than unselected or off color lumber. Kiln-dried Birch sorted for sapwood is in high demand, with prices higher.
Red Oak demand for certain contacts appears to be sufficient to meet demand for upper grade lumber on domestic markets. Demand overseas has gone down slightly, especially to China. More White Oak logs were being processed in certain areas, but this production is not overwhelming markets. Kiln-dried activity has slowed in international markets.
As we move towards the end of summer and early fall, it will be an interesting time to see how the new government is faring in delivering on their mandate, and what the new budget will bring.
