Northeast Trends 2025 – Putting Out Fires And Pulling Punches
Northeastern lumber salesmen are concerned about the fate of the trade deals which have, at the time of this writing, been affected by the 90-day pause on tariffs. Many sources reported playing a “wait-and-see” game and others aren’t optimistic about the outcome of the trade war, worrying over where to go if a deal with China can’t be reached.
The market is “fair” because the tariffs that were “implemented several weeks ago, have eased off so there is a little bit more optimism . . . . things are moving along well but I’m not all that optimistic about the summer.”
A hardwood mill in Pennsylvania, as noted by a lumber representative, experienced a fire but is still “selling a small amount out of the warehouse.”
The market in his area is slow. “Most of our local business in the state is for the kitchen and bath industry- like remodelers and home builders. It is not a robust industry right now and things are slow historically.” Compared to the last two years, “we are probably status quo” and the market is the same as six months ago.
He also expressed concern about hardwood lumber products competing with “painted products,” as they are “in fashion.”
All they currently offer, at the time of this writing, is Cherry in 4/4. They are also selling “all grades like FAS, No. 1 and No. 2 Common and Select and Better.”
He believes that the market’s outcome depends on “what trade deal is worked out with China and other countries, for that matter. There is still too much uncertainty right now because all we did is kick the can down the road for 90 days. We need trade agreements and the only trade agreement we’ve signed is with the United Kingdom.”
He explained that 50 percent of their lumber is exported, and that China and Vietnam are their “two main destinations.” When asked if his company would substitute their business with China with another country if there are more issues with the trade deals, he replied, “There are not a lot of countries to go to. I guess in a couple of years, if the trade deals aren’t worked out, we’ll see Chinese companies set up other Southeast Asian countries. If we can’t work out a deal with China, the next couple of years are going to be very difficult.”
Despite the fire, they managed to keep “most” of their workforce in place.
In New York, a lumber salesman said the market seems to be “hit and miss. No one knows what tomorrow’s going to bring due to the tariff discussions.”
It is, according to him, “definitely not as steady as it was,” six months ago.
They handle 4/4 through 8/4 in Red and White Oak. They also work with No. 2 Common and Better. “I would say, right now, that Red Oak is selling the best,” he added.
Their primary customers are wholesalers and distribution yards. “We do a little bit of exporting but not very much. The ones that we have dealt with, have gone very, very quiet due to the tariff situation. We haven’t sold anything to China yet because it is a wait-and-see game. We aren’t substituting those sales to any other countries like Vietnam and are staying pretty much domestic right now. I think everybody is doing the same as we are right now with the wait-and-see approach by only bringing in lumber for immediate needs.”
A lumber source in Maine reported that the market is “fair” because the tariffs that were “implemented several weeks ago, have eased off so there is a little bit more optimism.
There is a need for some lumber to be moved that was stagnant for the last several weeks. I’d say, right now, things are moving along well but I’m not all that optimistic about the summer.” It is “probably” the same as six months ago.
They offer “Hard and Soft Maple, Yellow Birch and Ash in 4/4 through 8/4 and anywhere from pallet grade to FAS, which includes Select grades and No. 1 and No. 2 Common. Hard Maple is selling the best.”
Their customer base consists of flooring, cabinet and wood component manufacturers, in addition to pallet and furniture companies. They also sell to distribution yards and indirectly export through brokers and wholesalers. He said that his customers were “more cautious” when asked about their market outlook in comparison to him.
While they are “suffering” regarding labor, transportation is “adequate.” His labor issues, as he explained, can be credited to a shortage in employees and a lack of employee retention. “It’s not a glamorous industry- it’s messy and dirty and full of hard work; it’s not something young people want to get involved in.”
