Northeast Business Trends – March 2025
Lumber Sources Share Concern Over Future Unpredictability
Northeastern lumber sources reported preparation for an unpredictable future and competition with imitation wood.
In Connecticut, a lumber representative commented, “Our order file is strong for both domestic and overseas. Prices are not ideal; they’re too low. We’re a manufacturer and we’re selling lumber today for what we sold lumber for 20 years ago and all our costs are at an all-time high so that’s not a good recipe.”
These pricing and demand issues are caused by “so many alternative products,” he explained. “People walk into a store and they buy plastic that looks like wood or tile. They buy all these things that look like wood so there’s still more production than demand.”
Despite these challenges, he said the market is better than it was six months ago.
His company offers “pretty much everything,” he said, when asked about species. For example, they handle Red and White Oak, Birch, Ash and Hard and Soft Maple in “all grades and thicknesses” including Nos. 1 – 3 Common in addition to FAS and Better and 4/4-8/4 thicknesses. Soft Maple and Red Oak are “really strong domestically,” he added. Red Oak is also “very strong for exporting. Birch is the least popular in the market. There’s just no demand for it. We can’t give it away for free.”
Their products are sold to distribution yards and end-use manufacturers. They also import. Regarding the proposed tariffs, he explained, “I think the tariffs will be detrimental to the hardwood industry because prices are already depressed and they will retaliate which will drive prices even further, putting sawmills further into deficit and probably put places that are struggling out of business. People have been struggling for the past two years so if that gets thrown at them, it might be the nail in the coffin.”
The market, as reported by a lumber source in New York, is “still a little slow domestically” due to a lack of demand and is the same as six months ago.
His company offers Basswood, Hard and Soft Maple, Poplar, Birch, Hickory, Walnut and Red and White Oak, among others. They also “work with pretty much everything” he added when asked about grades and thicknesses. “Red Oak upper grades are still moving pretty well,” he mentioned.
Most of their customers are domestic distributors, concentration yards and a few component manufacturers. It is “probably a little slow” for his customers who are “waiting to see what happens with the new president” and he thinks the “tariffs will probably hurt export-wise.”
In Pennsylvania, a lumber representative said the market is “okay but not great” and that “it’s just kind of a wait and see approach as to where the markets are going. The domestic market seems to be picking up slowly and at a much better pace but I can’t see where we’re going yet. I don’t have a crystal ball. I think that the markets are still a bit unpredictable now and the lumber industry continues to be very risky.”
His approach to shifts in the market is to “continue to adapt to what the markets will bring. I don’t think the markets are going to get any better but I think the businesses that are still around are going to do okay. Doing things the way we used to do them is not going to work anymore. To adapt to these market challenges, those of us in these industries just must think with an open mind and not be afraid to do tougher things.” Despite his positivity about their ability to adapt to challenges, he added, “I don’t think that we have seen the best that is yet to come out of these markets, but I don’t think we’ll ever get back to what has been considered best.”
The species they market consist of Poplar, Hickory, Cherry, Hard and Soft Maple in FAS and some No. 1 Common. No specie they offer is “selling the best” when compared to the others.
Distributors, millwork companies and manufacturers are their clients. “I think it’s difficult on their end, too,” he mentioned when questioned as to whether his customers had any comments about their own markets. “It’s not easy for anybody in this supply chain whether it be the sawmills, the yards, the guys that are drying wood or the end users; everybody is having a difficult time. The market space has continually eroded and I’m not encouraged about what’s going to happen in 2025. We must go with what each day gives us in this marketplace but to try to make a grand plan for this entire year for the people that we talk to, competitors or customers, it’s really hard to determine right now.”
For a lot of the suppliers they are in contact with, labor is difficult to find and their customers are having a tough time as well. He admitted that they have issues with labor on occasion, too. He described it all as a “common struggle nowadays.”
He delved into transportation issues, stating, “more and more freight carriers we deal with are going out of business because there’s not enough freight for them to haul. The rates are not high enough for them right now.”
He explained that “2024 was a tough year, as well as 2023” and they’re “not encouraged for 2025 but a lot of people I’m talking to are encouraged for the new administration. There’s not a lot of excitement in the industry right now. Everybody is trying to hold on.”
