Forest products industry contacts in the Northeast were divided on the state of the market in their region.
Each source acknowledged an increase in demand, while comments regarding the supply necessary to meet that demand varied by state. Although available inventory is spotty in certain regions of the Northeast, sawmill contacts in Connecticut reported an oversupply of certain commodity items: Red Oak, Cherry and “the lower grade items.”
Further illustrating the inconsistent supply of certain species, a concentration yard source in New York said that he is not having “any issue” finding White Oak in any grade, but a conversation with a Connecticut contact revealed that White Oak is popular among his customers, but scarce. While our Pennsylvania concentration yard source said, “There’s nothing that’s selling exceptionally well,” he added that “White Oak is moving well” but that its availability is limited.
Despite certain inconsistencies in the demand of other species such as Poplar, Hickory and Cherry, two of three industry professionals said that FAS Hard and Soft Maple are selling “very well.” Other species that are selling well in the Northeast include Red Oak and Walnut.
When asked how they would assess their market over the past six months, a New York contact said that the forest products market in his region is stronger than it was during the first quarter of 2024 and continuing to trend upward. Meanwhile, a source in Connecticut said that lumber sales were strong at the beginning of 2024 and began to trend down at the start of the summer. After much thought, the Pennsylvania reference said that it was tough to compare the state of his region today to the state of his region six months ago – and equally as difficult to forecast six months from now — and that much of the industry has “been in a paradigm shift for the last 12 months.”
Looking ahead, all sources expressed expectations of change as they approach the start of fall.
The Connecticut sawmill representative spoke of a perceived surplus of logs at sawmills in his region and concerns he had about possible reactions in lumber pricing as these logs are processed and the lumber “floods the market.” Conversely, the New York source said that he is optimistic that he will be able to temper his inventory/stocking orders in the coming months thanks to market supply stabilization.
The spokesperson in Pennsylvania remarked that “it is still a time to be cautious within this industry” and spoke matter-of-factly about what he viewed as threats affecting the industry in his region – Hardwood alternatives, the cost of marketing and a less-skilled incoming work force — before acknowledging that the market will “be back, but it may be a while.”
Sentiments among customers of these sources varied as well
For example, customers of a Pennsylvania concentration yard — specifically end users — are reportedly having difficulties finding consistent work because scarce supply may be forcing a consumer shift from Hardwood flooring and cabinetry to Hardwood alternatives.
The availability of lumber is also affecting end-use customers in Connecticut with certain cabinet manufacturers reporting booms in business — “they’ve got six months worth of orders” — and others dealing with sustained periods of no business.
Lastly, weather has reportedly fueled supply issues for some across the region. While there are plenty of available trucks to transport logs to mills, the rainy conditions across the region complicated logistics companies’ ability to “get the logs out.”
