Lumber Forecast: Challenges And Positive Momentum Are Anticipated In 2022

Jan/Feb Issue

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The year just past was good to Softwood lumber companies, but it was not without its challenges – even strong challenges. Some companies simply got through the year, a victory in itself, while others prospered, handily navigating challenges. Going into 2022, one lumber buyer cited transportation challenges and said, “We expect to have to deal with them well into 2022.” Another said the industry enters the new year “with much of the same momentum as 2021.”

Pat Duchien
Pat Duchien

Pat Duchien
Bitterroot Valley Forest Products
Missoula, MT

2021 was a successful year for our company. I think our volume grew a bit on our standard items but fell off some on our higher-end products/box store items. If we had the wood, we were going to sell it. That being said, the last four to six weeks of this year were expected to be quiet enough to warrant focusing on some programs starting in 2022. I believe for 2022 to be more successful we will have to stay out in front of buying our raw material, and not get caught holding higher priced inventory when or if the market conditions correct.

COVID probably did not affect us as much as other parts of the country pertaining to business. We thus far have not had any company-wide outbreak. As far as the employee shortage, which I believe has a lot to do with COVID, we have been hit like anyone else. It is a challenge to find the right people to work in the remanufacturing side of the industry, particularly on the production side. Our long tenured employees have stuck through it with us, and they have helped us tremendously.

Most, if not all, of our customers are distribution yards throughout the U.S. and Canada. Our strongest sellers this year have been our 2×6 tongue and groove, our exterior siding profiles, and our pattern boards – followed up with our Montana GhostWood line that has been pretty clockwork for the last 10 years or so.

We have just started introducing our Montana GhostWood 2 product, which uses a couple of tweaked colors. 

We are in the process of moving our Missoula location down to our old Florence, MT location. We are starting to and will be putting in a new moulder, two new planers, a brand new paint line, as well as moving some of our equipment we currently have down to that location. It should be complete sometime in the Summer of 2022. The goal is to streamline a lot of our product lines to enable more volume produced, in a more timely manner.

In regards to transportation, we are experiencing a major shortage of trucks. When we do find truck availability, we are price-shocked at the pricing. We do understand inflation and realize this may be the new normal. I think once everyone industrywide is accepting of this, it will become second nature with the new rates.

Dean Garafano
Dean Garafano

Dean Garofano
Delta Cedar Specialties
Delta, BC

2021 was very successful for the Delta group as we increased our market share significantly despite a difficult year working through COVID-related obstacles. The biggest challenge in repeating or increasing sales for 2022 will be sufficient supply.

COVID management created extra costs to continue operations in a safe manner. Our sawmills experienced additional staffing issues due to COVID, but with diligent protocols and good management we did not lose any significant production time. 

Delta produces a wide range of products from low grade through commons and tight knot, to timbers, shops and clears. Our best sellers this past year were DC Supreme and Superior knotty and our No. 4 Clear & Better products.

Our Halo sawmill will be completing installation of a Rapture auto trim line and bin sorters in 2022 that will improve our productivity.

Container shipments to offshore destinations have been a real challenge this year with long delays and uncertainties around ship dates.

The newest duty increase is very troubling as it will be yet another factor contributing to increased pricing. The recent Old Growth deferrals in B.C. along with the increased tariffs will put further upward pressure on prices at a time when the industry could use some pricing stability.

Alex Darrah
Alex Darrah

Alex Darrah
Durgin & Crowell Lumber Co.
Springfield, NH

2021 was a good year. We are hoping to keep running smoothly and repeat this next year. No specific challenges for 2022 come to mind.

The last month has been our most difficult time yet with employees out with COVID in the pandemic. We have not shut down from it but have had to run short-handed for sure. We are hoping it does not get progressively worse in the months to come.

We sell to wholesale distributors and lumber brokers. All our products were in high demand in 2021.

We added a new UV oven and doubled the production of our pre-finished paneling line. We also replaced an antiquated edger in the sawmill.

As for transportation, trucks have actually been coming regularly.

Mike Taron
Mike Taron

Mike Taron
Elk Creek Forest Products
McMinnville, OR

Yes, absolutely, 2021 was a successful year for us.

Challenges included: 

  • Continuing to address the lack of skilled labor
  • Investing in greater infrastructure development as we’ve outgrown current capacity 
  • Building the knowledge base of key personnel and cross training for greater flexibility

Additionally, working from home for all office staff created challenges and opened improvements to developing a primarily digital, paperless, platform. The lumber market spike created pressure on production capacity. We struggled with maintaining effective training and onboarding. 

We sell to stocking distributors, office wholesalers, industrial manufacturers and retail lumberyards.

Our strongest sellers were:

  • 3”, 4” & 6” green and kiln-dried S4S No. 1
  • Custom green and kiln-dried timbers
  • Board programs, and
  • FSC certified materials

We introduced no new products in 2021.

However, ECFP expanded market share for kiln-dried S4S and resawn timbers, 7/8” S1S2E boards, T&G products, and framing/construction materials. Elk Creek upgraded or improved nearly all aspects of our production process. In addition to improvements were several new items:

  • Resaw including infeed and outfeed
  • New kilns 
  • New forklift(s)
  • Moulder upgrades

Transportation-wise, domestically, it was the same as everyone else – difficult. Elk Creek doesn’t own its own trucks, so we rely solely on outside logistics support. It did become evident which service providers maintained a “win-win” and long-term vision of business partnership. Transportation cost, while excessive, didn’t seem to slow demand or customers’ willingness to purchase.

David Halsey
David Halsey

David Halsey
Patrick Lumber Company
Portland, OR

Yes, 2021 was successful for us. We were able to invest in expanding our kiln capacity in 2021 and added additional products. Manufacturing and logistical constraints continue to limit our growth.

COVID has been cited as the primary driver for shipping problems. Trucking, rail and ocean freight are all impacted. These issues persist and we expect to have to deal with them well into 2022.

Western Red Cedar was the strongest species for Patrick Lumber in 2021; the higher costs drove revenue. Demand still outpaces supply, so costs continue to increase and the recent increase in CVD and ADD rates are having additional impacts.

As for new products, we ran a test kiln charge of Tan Oak which looks great. 

Steam kilns were added at our Philomath facility doubling our kiln drying capacity and increasing the flexibility at the plant.

Like everyone, the impacts of transportation challenges are across the board – every mode of transportation, every lane. Some costs are five times historical price levels.

Matt Duprey
Matt Duprey

Matt Duprey
Hancock Lumber
Casco, ME

All of us at Hancock Lumber would consider 2021 a successful business year for many reasons. We have been able to run our mills at full capacity through the COVID pandemic. It was not easy, and at times trying, but our mission and culture was to keep our facilities running and our people working. To be equally or more successful in 2022 we must stay diligent in operating safely and keeping our people healthy and at work. The market will be different in 2022 vs. 2021, but we see the market staying strong for 2022. We must continue to be the choice for our long- term partners, create new partners and continue to provide our customers with the service and quality that they have come to expect from Hancock Lumber.

No question, COVID had an impact on our business and lives. We had to run lean at times, make our work-stations spaced and clean and come up with a protocol for continually cleaning machines and machine centers. We did have some COVID cases, but no cases were caused inside our mills. When someone got sick, it was from outside our walls. HR had a huge job keeping everything in line with contact tracing and policies to protect our employees. On the flip side the market took a historic run in prices, we ran our mills to capacity and we kept our customers going with our production. 

Our customer group consists of wholesale distributors, big box retail, manufacturers, export, wholesale brokers, buying groups and our own Hancock Lumber Retail stores. All segments were equally very strong.

2021 was a year we hung on to the train as hard as we could. We had all we could do to keep our core customers with wood and current product mix/services. 

We installed:

  • A new Carriage in Casco—yielding more lines per minute and grew efficiency. 
  • A new back-pressure turbine in Casco—making power with steam to help lower electric costs. 
  • A new Weinig Planer in Casco—yielding efficiencies, including pattern on first pass. This will help cut our lead times by doing half of our pattern out of Casco first pass vs. second. 
  • A new wood waste boiler in Bethel, which gives us two boilers to keep up with steam demand and helps make more power through our back pressure turbine we have there. 
  • A new kiln in Bethel which gives us 5MMBF more capacity. All other capital projects would be classified as smaller projects that help efficiencies, flow and employee experience.

In 2021, trucking was performing pretty well but, just like everyone, staffing idle trucks has been an issue. Trucks are now very hard to get and we have not even gotten to winter yet. We are paying higher rates but with that we are not getting the trucks needed to be consistent in shipping our production. Reliability has been tough.

The major concern is shipping and the cost craziness that is going on. The transportation infrastructure is so overwhelmed, and the shipping companies have been so inconsistent on pricing and service that it has been a major challenge.

Alden Robbins
Alden Robbins

Alden Robbins
Robbins Lumber, Inc.
Searsmont, ME

2021 was successful in the fact that we were able to stay running through all the obstacles we faced such as labor, COVID, and log shortages. We also enjoyed historically high lumber prices. For 2022 to be equally or more successful we will have to continue to battle the labor shortage and log shortage. We will also have to figure out how to operate with higher costs with logs and labor.  

While we saw supply and demand drive lumber prices, we have now seen these same forces apply to these two major costs to our company. Since supply of lumber may continue to be constrained, we will have to figure out how to extract maximum value out of what we cut by adding value and increasing efficiencies, which is difficult in an industry as mature as ours. 

We saw increased costs in the education and prevention of the spread of COVID. We saw labor shortages as infections became more common. There were increased tensions when it came to vaccines, and employees’ choices of getting them. It obviously affected demand for our products as well, as people stayed home and improved their dwellings. 

The majority of our products get used by the pro contractor, through independent retail yards, mostly through wholesale distribution. Just about everything sold well this year. 

We increased our capacity with the acquisition of another sawmill. With the acquisition of the additional sawmill we should be able to provide additional products to our key accounts. 

Availability of trucks and drivers are under strain due to demand and lack of drivers.

Trina Francesconi
Trina Francesconi

Trina Francesconi
Sandy Neck Traders
South Dennis, MA

2021 was a successful year for Sandy Neck, with overall sales growth on average 35-40 percent each month. Our customers have relied on us throughout these times of supply shortages to keep them in material, and we have made a point to ensure all of our regular customers are taken care of first before considering any business from new clients. Despite this, due to strong vendor relationships, we were very fortunate to be able to help new customers with supply issues they were facing and have brought on a wealth of new accounts in the past year. 

2022 looks to start with much of the same momentum as 2021, and, as with last year, we will be keeping a close eye on market conditions and educating our customers of what to expect as the year progresses to ensure their supply needs are adequately fulfilled. We are also continuing to work with our mill partners to purchase accumulations and downfall material to ensure they keep their inventories moving, and allow our customers access to alternative cost saving options. 

COVID’s disruption of supply chains had the biggest impact on us, as it did on much of the industry. Availability on certain items become scarce to non-existent throughout the summer and fall, and lead times were significantly extended. We are proud to have worked with our regular customers on gameplans ahead of time, putting together contracts and accumulation orders to help ease some of these disruptions. 

We sell to primarily industrial manufacturers, independent lumberyards, and large stocking installers. We deal in Eastern White Pine, in all NeLMA grades and patterns, Western Red Cedar in board and dimensional sizes of all grades, solid and boxed beams, plank and reclaimed floors including the Sawyer Mason line, Barnwood Distressed Shiplap Wallboard, as well as natural stone product. The strongest sellers were determined strictly by availability, and if more of everything we sold were readily available, sales for each of the items in our line could have doubled or tripled.

We are proud to now offer both solid and box beams for timber frame manufacturers, log home builders, lumberyards, and developers. Available in both new and reclaimed wood, beams are cut to order and we can offer extra long, extra wide timbers of various species made to our customers’ specs. 

We are fortunate to have a strong network of domestic carriers we do regular business with, allowing our vendors and clients to be familiar with the same drivers for their pickups and deliveries. This has been particularly critical during this busy year to allow our customers transparency and reliability in their deliveries.

By Matthew Fite

Matthew Fite Staff Writer Miller Wood Trade Publications

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