ALC Gets Economics Lesson From Professors
Appalachian hardwood salespeople and buyers learned about the economics of lumber in 2025 from two East Tennessee State University (ETSU) professors recently.
The Appalachian Lumbermen’s Club held its meeting at The Carnegie Hotel in Johnson City, TN, with presentations by Dr. Taylor Stephenson and Dr. Gary Shelley, both economics professors at ETSU. The men admitted their knowledge of the hardwood industry was low and they enlisted the help of economics students to learn more for the report.
Much of the research centered on the housing market, an indicator of hardwood use for cabinets, flooring and millwork. While many of these sectors have been impacted by substitute materials, the basis for lumber demand still has correlation.
A triple effect is keeping many homebuyers out of the market as home prices are high, availability is low and interest rates are above 6 percent, Stephenson said. There is a higher volume of multi-family units being built across much of the southeast.
Shelley spoke on the changes in the softwood industry from tariffs on Canadian lumber.
He said that has increased the cost but the demand has slowed slightly.
Stephenson said demand for lumber fluctuated widely in 2025 and has not followed the traditional demand vs. supply theories. The price for finished goods has seen little change for the year.
The forecast from leading economists is for 2026 is 2.0 percent growth in the gross domestic product, he said. That is slightly positive for lumber producers.
Shelley said the Trump Administration has announced increases in harvest on national forests and reduction in regulations. These should increase the volume of timber resources to sawmills.
The next meeting of the ALC is January 13, 2026 at the Embassy Suites Hotel in Greensboro, NC.
More information is available at www.lumberclub.org.
