West Coast Business Trends
A Tight And Challenging West Coast Market
Zach Miller
The North American lumber market is trying to find its footing as winter weather persists in most of the U.S. and Provinces. Historically this time of year coincides with slower construction and renovation activity and 2026 is proving no different. Unfortunately, this correlates to soft demand from distributors as mills build up inventories, deal with fiber sourcing, labor issues and some logistical headaches. However, optimism is tied to warm weather, and spring is right around the corner.
John McDowell of Oregon Industrial Lumber Products in Springfield, OR, said, “In clears and uppers, there is very little demand in the market. While various products from the sawmill, are either plentiful or tight depending on species and availability from Canada or in the U.S. However, we are seeing less than optimal demand. Douglas Fir VG 8” and wider Clears are tight in supply, so we can sell some of them but there is not more demand than material. In the narrows, demand is slow and supply is readily available. Yellow Cedar has more material available than demand, except maybe VG clears, but even those are not all sold ahead of time. Red Cedar, I understand, is tight but according to some of my contacts, it’s not generating the normal amount of interest either. Despite this, most sawmills are trying to raise their prices, which is also making things difficult. Obviously, material coming across the Canadian border has the Countervailing duty and the extra political tariff which makes wood hard to bring down and be at a price that will be accepted. However, it’s my understanding that currently overseas markets for the same wood are also not running at full speed. U.S. mills are also raising their prices which makes no sense when demand is sputtering. The only thing currently creating orders is the lack of Canadian wood.”
McDowell continued, “No one wants to inventory normal amounts of wood until they see an uptick in demand. There are very few projects going forward and the ones that everyone keeps quoting are being put off till later in the year. In the U.S. at the larger log mills that I deal with there are very little log issues. Most of the mills I have talked to say there are well set for some time with logs. Canadian mills seem to be having some issues. Both in the sense that at times they do not want to cut due to the lack of material coming across the U.S. border, and lack of logs ready be sawn. WFP having a logging strike a good part of last year and the beginning of this one made logs difficult for them. Other mills have been struggling with lack of demand for logs that they have sitting ready to go. In general, I get the vibe that Canadian mills have been having a tough go the last six to eight months.”
When asked about the year so far, McDowell commented, “In early 2026, I unfortunately do not see the market coming back to normal during the first quarter and I am reluctant to say that will come back to normal strength in the second quarter. If we can begin to find what is the new norm and cut out possible tariff changes that are possible at any moment, then I think we will begin to move forward as a market.”
West Coast lumber representatives have reported experiencing labor struggles, a lack of sustainable fiber supplies and cautious customers.
Finally, McDowell said, “It’s tough out there right now. Many companies are showing possible signs of becoming cash strapped. I believe that previous consolidation of the last few months are great examples of this. Many companies still had good Covid years that they could show on their books when brokering a deal, but they also knew that 2025 and the beginning of 2026 were not going to look as good. Therefore, we have seen some consolidation in the market. Disdero, Ore Pac, Bright Wood and Holden Humphreys being sold are good examples of companies that were acquired these past few months. These are likely examples of still successful acquisitions, but they are again an example of consolidation in our market. I expect that things will begin to turn around this year at some point, but it’s difficult to tell exactly when that path will open up and show itself.”
Aidan Coyles of Gilbert Smith Forest Products in Barriere, BC, said, “Demand is fairly stable for winter. Mild weather and a tough Whitewood market is playing a factor in log supply challenges. Pricing is fairly firm for now. It’s a complete mixed bag when trying to describe what our customer’s mood is, many are waiting for Spring to see which way the market is heading. On the forestry front it seems to be shifting in BC, putting strain on manufacturing facilities. Tough markets mean less logging and more mills looking to less commoditized product lines.”
Coyles finished with, “Instability and lack of sustainable fiber supply make planning for the future challenging. The industry is changing one way or another, and we need the change to happen fast enough that everyone doesn’t lose while we figure out what the new normal is.”
An anonymous West Coast U.S. lumber producer noted, “The domestic market is fine. I’m not seeing any real availability issues. Fir is good with steady flow, and the takeaway is pretty normal. There is a lot of pressure on Hemlock as the gap has been equalized with Fir, while Cedar is okay but expensive and tough to find. Overall, the market isn’t killer — wood is moving but mostly to higher end projects. There is not a lot of fiber coming out of Canada and what is coming down is pretty expensive due to log costs, tariffs and duties. We’re seeing some pushback on pricing. We’re selling wood everyday but it’s very specific piece counts because nobody wants to accept anything extra. Our customer’s mood seems to be a little concerned but optimistic about spring and summer. Our biggest obstacle is trying to introduce new unique products into this market. All the consolidation at the distribution level is making things more difficult, folks are very risk averse right now.”
