Quebec Business Trends 2025 – Quebec Faces A Holiday Slowdown
The beginning of fall was a very turbulent period in terms of the tariffs imposed by Trump and the changes announced by the provincial government affecting the forestry industry in Quebec. The usual downtime during the Thanksgiving holiday and the start of hunting season saw a slowdown in sales of hardwoods as well as reduced production at sawmills. Some contacts noted that business was a challenge, as it was not great, but they were managing despite the obstacles being faced.
Ash sales continue to be slow for this species caused by the Emerald Ash Borer. However, demand remains steady for this species of kiln-dried inventory as well as green Ash moving as produced at steady prices, commented contacts.
Basswood sales are adequate as window blind and shutter manufacturers are purchasing modest amounts of this species.
As the pause on tariff rates was in place, the recent increase in Chinese demand enabled wholesalers to increase purchases of green No. 1 Common & Better Cherry to replace stock. Prices were steady for certain items while edging up for others.
Hickory sales are going to hardwood flooring manufacturing plants rather than to wholesalers and other end users in the hardwood industry. It is sometimes noted as one of the lesser moving items on markets. Also, green Hickory was going towards producing industrial products rather than grade lumber, keeping supply aligned with market demand.
The regionally important Hard Maple demand has been lower than over the summer. Production is based on demand which has declined accordingly, thus avoiding an oversupply on markets. Some inventories of kiln-dried items exceeded demand, resulting in easier purchasing for distributors and secondary wood products manufacturers.
Soft Maple is reported as a bestseller at this time for sawmills and concentration yards. The most in demand include FAS, No. 1 Common. No. 2A Common is the hardest grade to sell.
Some residential flooring manufacturer contacts reduced buying No. 2A and 3A Common Red Oak due to concerns about the lack of profitability with Red Oak flooring. Truck-trailer flooring producers also reduced purchases amid slower finished goods sales. However, demand for Red Oak from these two sectors is keeping supplies in check. Residential flooring manufacturers are looking for more No. 2A and 3A White Oak. Profit margins were noted as better for White Oak than Red Oak flooring.
Demand for Red Oak is reported as decent according to contacts. Production is moving for Green No. 3A and Better Red Oak. Chinese buyers ordered decent quantities of kiln-dried Red Oak before the window closed on November 10th — before the pause on elevated tariff rates expires. Uncertainty of future tariffs is causing production to shift away from China-centric species.
Markets are absorbing green White Oak production, although some grades edged down due to lower demand.
Sales were not an issue for kiln-dried stock noted contacts. White Oak is often one of the best sellers.
Most grades and thicknesses of Poplar are reported to be selling well, with some increasing production while others are not, depending on areas contacted. This is due to demand from export markets, like Vietnam. Supply and demand, however, are close to balanced levels.
There is a shortage of Walnut logs due to their being shipped to Vietnam at noted record levels, causing a shortage to saw for Walnut lumber. Activity has increased for kiln-dried items, which was not the case over the last several months.
The Quebec government scrapped Bill 97 in its entirety (although some form of forestry reform is still a possibility) due to rising tensions and repeated breakdowns in negotiations between stakeholders. The decision came after Jean-François Simard was appointed the province’s new minister of Natural Resources and Forests in September’s cabinet shuffle.
“Today, Premier François Legault announced the end of Bill 97 in order to start fresh,” Ian Lafrenière, minister of First Nations and Inuit Relations, said on September 25.
The proposed bill received massive opposition from First Nations, environmental groups and labor unions to forestry associations. The overwhelming opposition made it difficult to identify what factors were ultimately responsible for the bill’s downfall.
From the moment the bill was introduced to the National Assembly last spring, tensions between forestry workers and land defenders began to erupt across Northern Quebec. Negotiations between the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and the Assembly of First Nations Quebec an Labrador (AFNQL) had already broken down twice by the time the bill was withdrawn.
The AFNQL had said since the beginning the bill did not respect the rights of First Nations, biodiversity, or the long-term interests of workers. The MAMO First Nation, an alliance of land defenders and hereditary chiefs from the Innu, Atikamekw and Abenaki nations, began conducting protests and barricade actions in an effort to pre-emptively resist this new legislation. A spokesperson for the MAMO First Nation explained that the problems underlying the tensions existing long before the particular piece of legislation.
The bill proposed dividing Quebec’s forests into three zones for development, conservation, and multi-purpose use. Although this version was unsuccessful, Lafrenière said the CAC is still exploring other ways to approach forestry reform.
The AFNQL and the Atikamekw Nation Council confirmed they want to collaborate on reforming the forest regime. One lesson that should be taken away from this situation is that consent will be central to any future successful attempts at forestry reform.
Despite these recent developments, MAMO First Nation has vowed to continue its actions in the forests until the day these deeper issues are resolved.
There is work to be done, but with everyone working together, a solution that benefits all can be found.
We extend sincerest Seasons Greetings to all and a Happy New Year.
