Inland West Business Trends
Inland West Region Cites Mixed Market Reviews And Conflicting Reports
By Terry Miller
President
According to sources in the Inland West at the time of this writing, the market is very mixed, with some expressing slow movements and others seeing an increase in business.
An Idaho lumber salesman said the market is “confusing and frustrating.” He elaborated, “it’s just weird. There’s a little bit of buying going on but it’s highly mixed. Everyone is playing it tight to the vest.”
When compared to six months ago he said, “it’s worse. Obviously, you have the duties and the tariffs, but you also have the economic news. I know we’re not necessarily going to see it now, but if there’s going to be money pumped back into the economy there’s got to be some building happening at some point, but it certainly hasn’t felt that way at all.”
His company handles Hem Fir, White Fir, Douglas Fir, Fir and Larch in everything from select structural to economy. Specifically, No. 1 Common, No. 2 Common, studs, No. 3 Common, utility and economy in 2×4 to 2×12 with 2×4 selling the best.
“We sell to contactor yards, home centers and the multifamily segment,” he said. While they have not been directly affected by the tariffs seen in other parts of the country, the company’s branch in the east has “seen difficulty.”
A lumber supplier spokesman in Arizona said the market is “pretty good” with “lots of building going on.” He reported having a similar start to the year.
They process Ponderosa Pine, SPF and some Douglas Fir offered in thicknesses of 4/4 to 8/4 and four inch to six inch with 8/4 lumber selling the best.
“We sell to wholesalers and big retailers. They all seem to say it’s not a great market but it’s decent,” he said, while transportation and the state of tariffs have not been an issue for them.
Ponderosa Pine sales are slow
In Wyoming, a timber sales representative commented on the slow pace seen in the market. “It’s overall better than six months ago,” he said. “It continued to climb until the first of June and when I say things are tough right now, it’s just compared to the expectations. Trading levels are better than they were, we see markets continue to improve, but it just seems like we’ve been in a holding pattern for 60 days. We’re typically dealing with tough markets in the heat of the summer, people are focusing on yard projects or maybe working inside so we start gaining momentum after July.”
They have two sawmills that produce entirely Ponderosa Pine and one sawmill that produces Englemann Spruce-Lodgepole Pine. All boards are one inch, 1×4 to 1×12, and their studs are 2×4 or 2×6. They sell to distributors, manufacturers, retailers and big box stores.
“Studs right now are doing okay; we’re selling just enough to stay ahead of production. Boards we’ve seen inventories drop but we’ve had to get aggressive with pricing to keep up with the inland mills, I think they’re both just kind of on pace with production. It’s a ‘blah’ market right now. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of expectations for huge improvements in the foreseeable future,” he said.
When he spoke to his customers on the market they commented on the lack of optimism seen at the first of the year. “I think everything between the people we talk to and their business is off but lumber in comparison is not off as much as other items. So, I think lumber is still performing well. Everybody is pretty much in the same boat, we missed what I would have expected to see this season,” he said.
He mentions expectations have “fallen short” and that they had previously been “much higher,” with the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs being the core issue. Spending is down compared to previous years but there are hopes it will “bounce back this fall.”
“Everyone is sitting on their wallets not wanting to spend, not knowing what the general economic conditions are going to be. There’s a lot of things transpiring right now, with the tariff deadline and the countervailing duty coming into place with the Canadian imports. There’s not enough demand on the U.S. side right now to have an immediate effect but maybe this will all compile to increase activity,” he said.
While transportation has been good, the company is seeing direct impact from the tariffs. “Consumer confidence is up, but our business is not reflecting that. It feels like our consumers are slow playing everything, waiting to see what effects this is going to have. As slow as the market is right now, all the tariff talk isn’t going to affect the pricing because there isn’t enough demand to bring that higher cost inventory into the states. The threat of the tariffs and the uncertainty has slowed our business down, so pricing is not really affected but activity I would say is,” he said.
