Sources on the West Coast reported that business in their region is steady but acknowledged that there is some market insecurity and that present factors could drive the market up or down over the remainder of the year. In reference to the current state of his market, a representative from a lumber distributor in Oregon said, “It’s pretty good, not great, not bad; it could be a lot worse and we’re trending down the middle, so not too bad.” A source in California shared a similar opinion saying that his business is order to order. The lumber company owner explained, “The business is there, but no one commits until they have the order themselves.”
Stopping himself short of saying normal, one source reported that the lumber supply in his region is decent. None of the contacts cited supply issues, but a source in Washington said that the mix of species that he has a demand for has completely changed from two years ago. Supporting his claim, a source in another state said, “Typically, we’ve sold all grades Select and Better down to, maybe, No. 2 Common. In the past year, though, we’ve been selling a lot more upper grade, high-end material.”
Despite the fluctuation in demand among grades, sources in three West Coast states said that White Oak continues to outsell other species. Additionally, Walnut, Hard and Soft Maple, Hickory and Poplar are selling well. One source that stocks more than 60 different species of Hardwood and imported wood, said that as business for his end-use customers showed signs of increasing, he expected Poplar to outsell other species in terms of volume.
Slower than expected housing starts and firm loan rates were reportedly contributing to an uncertain end to 2024 for some in the West Coast region. A source in Washington said, “I’m hopeful, but I don’t see anything that’s telling me, you know, ‘invest in Hardwoods’ right now.” He continued, “If the interest rates would come down and housing becomes more affordable, that would really help our industry.”
Citing overall sluggishness in the economy, the same contact in Washington said that his business is probably 60 percent of what it was two years ago. He continued by saying that the majority of his end-use customers are feast or famine, suggesting that some are doing well while others are struggling.
When asked if he could identify positive trends in his region, a source in Oregon said that while his supply is decent and his customers are relatively busy, he had not seen anything suggesting imminent growth.
He went on to say that no drastic change may be a good thing considering how the last several years has gone for the industry in his region.
“I’ve been around for 30 years and it’s kind of percolating along. You’re able to get what you need and you’re able to move through items and, you know, it’s traditional lead times and traditional supply lines — it’s just kind of a normal market,” he said. “We’re used to all kinds of craziness and it’s usually like, ‘What’s wrong?’ but it seems kind of normal.”
