Southeast Business Trends 2025 – A Steady Summer Marries Trade Unpredictability
Across the Southeast, hardwood suppliers report market conditions that are holding steady, but just barely. Stalled trade negotiations that make overseas buyers hesitate, declines in lower grade, pallet and stave demand have created a complicated summer. One lumber source even shared his concerns for some of the employees at his business, hoping that they will not be affected by the government’s current decisions because operating the mill without them would be a challenge.
A contact in Tennessee noted that business remains flat compared to the start of the year, with little momentum either way. “It’s fairly stable,” he said. “Not better than six months ago, but not worse either. April was the outlier. It basically froze everything.”
The stall, he explained, stemmed from tariff talks earlier this spring, which brought many transactions to a standstill. “We saw what uncertainty could do in April,” he added, referencing the 90-day pause that allowed some movement in the interim. At the time of this writing, the pause is set to expire in August and many suppliers across the region are bracing for another slowdown.
Handling all major Appalachian species, this Tennessee operation works primarily in 4/4 thicknesses, with some material in 6/4. Poplar remains its strongest seller, followed closely by Red Oak, which has seen a rise in demand but is in short supply due to a wet spring and a sluggish logging season. “There’s not a ton of logs on the yard right now,” the source added. “It’s been that kind of year.”
Interestingly enough, Hickory has also been moving quickly, attributed more to interior design trends than industrial demand. “Hickory cabinets are back in,” he laughed. “When the wives want new cabinets, Hickory’s the pick.”
On the opposite side, White Oak, once the better of both domestic and international buyers, has become harder to move. “It’s the slowest item right now,” said another supplier. “Even the stave market isn’t giving it the usual lift.” Ash also remains limited, though everything acquired so far this year has been sold or oversold.
In Alabama, another contact described market activity as “weak but steady,” with grade lumber and crossties moving, while industrial pallet stock has softened significantly. “I don’t understand why the low-grade has fallen off, but it has,” he said. “That’s been a hardship.”
The Alabama supplier primarily handles 4/4 and 5/4 in all hardwood species, with White Oak commanding stronger prices than Red Oak, despite both selling at a consistent pace. The company services a wide mix of customers, from flooring and pallet companies to a few furniture manufacturers, with most exports handled indirectly through brokers.
Labor remains relatively stable here, thanks in part to a seasoned crew and a high percentage of Latino workers. “It’s impossible to run a mill without them,” the contact noted. “If something happens to that workforce, I don’t know what we’ll do.”
Meanwhile, in Georgia, activity is being propped up by the domestic hardwood flooring market, but overseas demand has cooled. One supplier, operating near the Port of Savannah, said exports to China and Vietnam have slowed significantly. “They just don’t have the order files,” he explained. “They won’t buy until they do.”
Species-wise, Red Oak and lower-grade White Oak (No. 2 Common and 3A) are still moving thanks to domestic price adjustments. “It was overpriced for a long time,” he said of White Oak. “Now that it’s coming down, some of the flooring plants are taking another look.”
The region continues to struggle with bigger-picture concerns, primarily high interest rates and stalled trade negotiations. “People can’t afford a house and furniture right now,” one source pointed out. “You used to buy a house just to have a reason to fill it with furniture. Now, you move in and sit on the floor.”
With summer heat and uncertainty both climbing, mills across the Southeast are focusing on lean crews, heat-friendly workspaces, and modest expectations for the coming quarter. “If the market turns, there’s not enough production left to meet demand,” said one contact. “We’re hoping for better days this fall, but we’re not betting on them.”
