Exports In A Turbulent World
The American Hardwood Export Council used the opportunity presented by the Indiana Hardwood Lumbermen’s Association Convention to hold a Board of Director’s meeting as well as a Strategic Planning Committee meeting. While both meetings were attended by AHEC Board members and invited guests only, AHEC gave a presentation to a packed house at IHLA titled “Where Do We Go From Here? U.S. Hardwood Exports in a Turbulent World.”
The presentation focused on the turmoil in global markets as reciprocal tariffs on U.S. hardwood exports are expected imminently from Canada, Mexico, China and the European Union. These four markets together represent nearly 75 percent of all hardwood lumber exports. These potential barriers to trade come at a time when U.S. production and domestic consumption were both teetering on all-time lows (at lease since the end of World War II).
The presentation also featured an overview of full-year 2024 hardwood lumber exports to all markets. While overall exports were up just over 6 percent by volume to the world, that total is from historically low 2023 levels, and is considerably below the 2016-2020 averages. Indeed, while exports to China increased modestly last year, they remain at around one-half of the 2018 levels achieved just prior to the first trade war with that country. AHEC pointed out that while China’s hardwood imports from all sources is down substantially over the last six years, due primarily to a slowing Chinese economy and housing crisis, it is also true that the U.S. has lost market share as a result of the tariffs. In 2017 the U.S. had a 31 percent share of all Chinese lumber imports but that share has fallen to just over 20 percent in 2024.
Among the fastest growing major markets in 2024 were Vietnam at 23 percent, the United Kingdom at 20 percent, Australia at 31 percent and the United Arab Emirates at 49 percent. Other strong markets included Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia in Southeast Asia which were up 52 percent, 31 percent and 37 percent respectively. Many of these gains were offset, however, by declines in other markets such as Spain (-17 percent), Mexico (-2 percent), Japan (-24 percent) and Turkey (-19 percent).
Our presentation ended with a discussion of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which, despite being postponed by 12 months until December 31, 2025 is still poised to severely impact U.S. hardwood exports. These disruptions will not only impact direct sales of logs, lumber and veneer to the EU but will also impact wood products—such as furniture—manufactured with U.S. hardwoods in countries such as China, Vietnam or India. The main issue for U.S. exporters is the regulation’s insistence on the provision of individual property level geolocation data for each individual consignment shipped into any EU country. This requirement is all but impossible for the fragmented U.S. hardwood supply chain where fiber provided by the nearly 10 million individual forest owners who are the backbone of our industry. AHEC shared a summary of a county-based satellite deforestation detection system that AHEC is currently developing, and advised that the organization would continue to work with its industry partners across Europe to seek acceptance of this system.
