Ontario Business Trends June 2026 – Profit Margins Tighten Amid Ongoing Conflict

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Profit Margins Tighten Amid Ongoing Conflict

Spring was slow to arrive, with persistent cold and rainy weather throughout April when this article was written. Transportation challenges continued across the province as elevated fuel prices—driven in part by the ongoing conflict in Iran—kept pressure on freight costs. Both short- and long-haul transportation became more expensive, tightening profit margins for many businesses. In response to broader affordability concerns, the federal government announced several relief measures, including personal income tax cuts, the elimination of the consumer carbon tax, the elimination of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) for first-time homebuyers and the
introduction of the new Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit.

Several companies reported growing interest in Ash, particularly across most grades and kiln-dried material. Demand from China strengthened this spring, especially for No. 1 Common and No. 2A grades, while other grades continued to move steadily to the Middle East, the Far East and Europe. Domestic demand, however, was more controlled.

Aspen was noted to be in short supply among sawmills, logging companies and concentration yards.

Basswood demand varied by region. Some contacts described it as a slow seller, while others were avoiding purchases to keep inventories in check. In contrast, kiln-dried 4/4 and 5/4, especially 4/4 No. 1 Common, were performing well in certain areas.

Ontario

Birch sales were sluggish, with the exception of SAP & Better No. 1 Common. While production of several species was beginning to lag demand, Birch remained an outlier, with supply continuing to outpace demand.

Interest in winter-cut Hard Maple increased at the time of this writing, particularly for kiln-dried stock, leading to price increases. Heavy rainfall across the province tightened supplies, and flooding in some regions due to snowmelt further constrained availability.

Soft Maple demand and sales depended heavily on grade. The cabinet sector was a key buyer. Persistent wet conditions limited logging activity, contributing to tightening supplies.

Prices of Red Oak held steady following the increases seen through March and April. Export demand, especially from China, stayed strong. Domestic interest was more subdued, with the residential flooring sector continuing to be its primary customer.

White Oak supply was largely keeping pace with demand, which put some downward pressure on pricing. However, contacts noted that supplies were beginning to tighten. With export activity showing signs of improvement, prices were starting to stabilize. 

The Canadian International Trade Tribunal was instructed by the Governor in Council, following a recommendation from the Minister of Finance, to investigate whether three classes of imported wood products—solid and engineered wood cabinets and vanities, solid and engineered hardwood flooring, and engineered-wood storage furniture (safeguard inquiry GC-2026-001)—are entering Canada in such increased quantities and under such conditions to be a principal cause of serious injury or threat of injury to Canadian producers of like or directly competitive goods.

If the Tribunal makes an affirmative determination, it is directed to recommend the most appropriate remedy to address the injury or threat over a three-year period, in accordance with Canada’s rights and obligations under international trade agreements.

The Tribunal must report to the Minister by January 15, 2027. Any interested person, association or government may participate in the inquiry by filing Form I—Notice of Participation.

In April, Prime Minister Carney announced the federal government was temporarily suspending the Fuel Excise Tax on gasoline and diesel across Canada from April 20 to September 7, 2026. The measure was expected to lower pump prices by about 10-cents-per-liter for gasoline and four cents for diesel.

The tax suspension will reduce operating costs for truckers and businesses in the food, agriculture, housing, construction and delivery sectors. With lower costs and greater financial strength, businesses can hire more workers, confidently build and export more products to global markets.

The announcement builds on major initiatives in an effort to strengthen Canada’s economic resilience and energy independence. The government highlighted several affordability measures already underway, including personal income tax cuts, eliminating the consumer carbon tax, eliminating the Goods and Services Tax (GST) for first time homebuyers and the new Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit.

Statistics Canada’s Investment in Building Construction, February 2026 report noted that the total value of investment in building construction decreased $503.2 million (-2.1 percent) to $23.0 billion in February, driven by a decline in the residential sector (-3.3 percent). Meanwhile, the non-residential sector edged up 0.7 percent, mitigating the decrease. Year over year, total investment rose 1.8 percent.

On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total building construction investment declined 2.3 percent from January to $21.1 billion and was down 1.5 percent year over year.

Investment in residential building construction decreased $552.3 million to $16.0 billion. A 6.9 percent drop in the multi-unit component was moderated by 1.1 percent increase in single-family construction.

Investment in multi-unit dwelling construction fell by $630.0 million to $8.5 billion, with Ontario (- $422.7 million) leading the decline, supported decreases in six other provinces and two territories.

Meanwhile, investment in single-family home construction rose $77.7 million to $7.4 billion. Gains in Quebec (+$103.1 million), New Brunswick (+$48.2 million) and Manitoba (+$24.2 million) were partially offset by declines in Ontario (-$54.4 million) and Saskatchewan (- $5.8 million).

The value of non-residential building construction edged up by $49.1 million to $7.0 billion, with growth across the institutional (+0.9 percent), industrial (+0.7 percent) and commercial (+0.6 percent) components.

Investment in the institutional component rose $20.2 million to $2.2 billion. Alberta (+$9.9 million), Ontario (+$9.5 million) and British Columbia (+$8.6 million) were the primary contributors to the increase. These gains were moderated by declines across four provinces and two territories, led by Quebec (-$5.8 million).

Investment in the industrial component increased $9.0 million to $1.3 billion, marking the first monthly increase since January 2025. Alberta (+$4.7 million) led the growth, supported by utility building construction, with additional gains across six other provinces and one territory.

Meanwhile, commercial construction investment increased by $19.9 million to $3.6 billion, led by Alberta (+$15.7 million).

By Miller Wood Trade Publications

The premier online information source for the forest products industry since 1927.

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