Northeast Business Trends October 2026 – Northeasterners Navigate ‘Mixed-Bag’ Market
The hardwood lumber market in the Northeast is a mixed bag, according to several sources who are each experiencing varying fluctuations in movement. Some sources are seeing steady movement while others say the market is flat or borderline slow. Another contact is remaining positive despite facing several challenges.
In Maine, a sawmill representative said the market is flat, and it’s been that way for at least six months.
“There are quite a few headwinds coming our way in the second half of the year if energy prices don’t get straightened out,” he added.
His business handles all the species that grow in the area, including Hard and Soft Maple, Red Oak, Ash, Yellow Birch and white pine in Nos. 1, 2 and 3 Common. It offers lumber in 4/4 and 5/4 thicknesses.
“Ash is doing well,” he said. “There’s a lot of pushback from the Chinese trying to get the price down on Red Oak, so we’re not sure where that’s going to be in the next month or two. Hard Maple is doing well. Soft Maple is doing OK. Yellow Birch is dead.”
He sells to millwork, flooring, cabinet and furniture manufacturers.
“Everybody’s order file is very low. Overall sentiment is not good I don’t think,” he said. “The distribution yards seem to be doing OK, but that’s mostly Poplar and White Oak. But when you get into the end-use manufacturers, whether it’s mouldings, cabinets, etc., their business is off year over year.”
He said the higher cost of diesel fuel and fuel surcharges are negatively affecting his operation.
“Think about the fiber in our mill. One log increases fuel cost five times,” he explained. “By the time you pay a logger to go work in the woods, then it gets trucked to the mill, then the mill to the kilns, then from the kilns to the customer, the same fiber is getting hit with fuel surcharges over and over again, so that’s certainly a contributing factor.”
Labor is also an ongoing challenge.
“We’re always hiring. There’s always positions that we have a hard time filling,” the source explained.
He said entry level positions are the hardest to fill and finding good millwrights is also a struggle right now.
A West Virginia lumber manufacturer said the market in his area is borderline slow and worse than it was six months ago.
“I think right now export is a big problem. Everything going to China and Vietnam has really, really slowed down,” he said. “I think it’s due to the fact that they’re buying so many logs, and they’re cutting way back on lumber. So, we’re trying to scramble to move those export items, like Red Oak and Cherry, because they’re buying up all the logs and cutting them themselves and cutting back on buying lumber. The majority of what we do is domestic, and it’s come off some too. It’s still steady but probably on the slow end.”
His operation handles all the Appalachian species, such as Red and White Oak, Cherry, Poplar, Hard and Soft Maple, Hickory and Basswood, in 4/4, 5/4 and 6/4 thicknesses. Grades offered include FAS and Nos. 1 and 2 Common.
He said Poplar is selling best. “Everything is kind of moving, but you have to work to get orders,” the source explained. “There are no easy items. No. 1 Common Maple is moving pretty good. Poplar is moving pretty good. Cherry is still kind of doing OK in exporting.”
Domestically, his operation sells to a lot of distribution yards, some end users and a few brokers, and it exports about 30 percent of its lumber.
Many of his customers have made comments about the market being slow.
“Housing’s slow. Moulding and cabinets and flooring are slow as well,” the contact said.
He said a challenge is the price of freight, which has gone up about 25 to 30 percent since February when the Iran war started.
Another challenge is finding labor. “It’s just an ongoing issue,” he continued. “I think with everybody it’s just hard to replace somebody when they leave.”
At a Pennsylvania concentration yard, a lumber source said the market in his area is a mixed bag.
“There are items that are selling,” he said. “There are items that will be coming available as well.”
He continued, “The markets are moving at an OK pace. We’re encouraged that there will be a time that it’ll be moving a little quicker but yet the market right now is a little unpredictable.”
His operation handles Red and White Oak, Hard and Soft Maple, Cherry, Poplar and Hickory in 4/4 through 8/4. Grades include FAS and Nos. 1 and 2 Common.
The contact said the domestic markets seem to be doing OK but overall hardwood lumber has lost out to competing products, such as vinyl tile flooring and composites.
“So, the overall outlook for hardwood seems to be a luxury item. Hardwood lumber has lost a lot of market share, and it’s really hard to determine where we are going forward with all this,” the source noted. “I think that there are still markets out there but for large volume shipments. I believe the future of it’s going to continue to be diminished,” which is a transition this industry has experienced over the past decade.
Currently, “I think with a slower economy right now, it’s just made it more difficult. The industry has lost a lot of suppliers, lost a lot of competitors,” he said. “I think the model for hardwood lumber seems to be broken right now.”
While he noted that the market is not as good as it was six months ago, there are pockets that are doing well and some that could use some more movement.
“Those markets will come and go, and they’ll change around but there is no one particular species that’s moving stronger than another,” he said.
He sells to distributors and end users.
“There are some that are doing OK, and there are some that are not doing as well as others,” the contact said regarding his customers. “It’s just not a large demand for hardwood lumber now. There will be a time where it will change, when the economy seems to get propped up and going better.”
As for challenges his operation is facing, he said everything is a factor right now. “Every cost has gone up with running a facility, but our lumber pricing has not gone up enough to cover increased costs with labor, transportation, oil, gas, electric, workman’s compensation, insurances,” he explained. “Workers are difficult to find. It’s very difficult to find people who want to work.”
He is remaining positive, but he added it’s very challenging right now, and “it does not look like any immediate change is happening in the near future.”
The contact said there are challenges with the exporting of lumber to Europe. “Also, Asia is not strong. Their economy has slowed down quite considerably and seems like they are lower on available cash right now,” he added.
A New Hampshire wholesale lumber supplier said the market in her area is good and still busy.
“It’s a renewable resource, and people are still always using it, so the market’s good,” she said.
At the time of this writing, she said the market in her area is steady compared to this time last year.
“People aren’t stopping using wood,” the source added.
In her specific region, “There’s a housing boom, and people are wanting upgrades, and wood’s a good option,” she said.
Her operation handles over 50 species of lumber, including exotics and softwoods. Some of the hardwood species offered include White Ash, Cherry, Red and White Oak, Hickory, Hard and Soft Maple, Birch, Poplar and Walnut.
The supplier carries lumber in thicknesses of 4/4-16/4, depending on species in grades Common, FAS and rustic. The species that were moving the best at the time of this writing were White Oak and Walnut, which are “very, very popular,” she added.
She sells to a variety of customers, such as end-use manufacturers, contractors, builders and homeowners.
Although there are challenges many lumber suppliers are facing throughout the Northeast, those interviewed remained positive.
